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 *** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... ****

Warm-Up
- New President - New Leadership
- Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones
- Another short-seller is out of biz...
- Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office

Markets
- Coins - on fire (then pull back)
- Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print
- MemeCoins making a comeback
- Pelosi moving stocks

** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025

PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits
- Follow JCD and AH on Twitter
- Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET)

Inauguration
- Any major takeaways?
- Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident
- Significant number of executive orders
First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates
- National emergency: Borger, energy
- "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security"
- Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region"
- DEI -could now be DOA
- Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement
- - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives.
--- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars
-- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in?
----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government
- Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio

Pre-Emtiove Pardons
- President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.”
- Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden.
- “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release.
--- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned

Tariffs
- Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st.
- HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1

Musk - Feelings hurt?
- Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right?
- Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts?

TikTok
- Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web)
- Several players are interested in buying the US assets
- Kevin O'Leary, Elon Musk
--- Latest to throw their hat in the ring - Perplexity AI- merger
--- Perplexity is backed by Amazon/Bezos (amongst others)
-- Trump wants to try to give them more time to work things out.... (TikTik CEO attended Inaugural ball)

Netflix - POW! (Disclosure- H&C Clients own NFLX)
- Q4 global streaming paid net adds were +18.91 mln vs prior guidance of "higher than Q3's +5.07 mln." Co notes Q4 was the biggest quarter of net adds in company history.
- Q4 operating margin came in at 22.2% vs 21.6% prior guidance primarily due to higher-than-forecasted revenue; guides to Q1 operating margin of 28.2%.
- Co says revenue was slightly above forecast despite the strengthening of the US dollar vs. most currencies as membership growth and ad sales outpaced the co's forecast.

California Fire Clean up
- Companies that may benefit - Clear: United Rentals (URI), Caterpillar (CAT)
- Fire Retardant Paint 3M (MMM)
- Homebuilder - most known in LA area KB Hones (KBH)

Earnings
- Target Earnings (not great - not getting much better)
--Target raised its fourth-quarter sales forecast Thursday after more consumers turned to its stores and website for holiday shopping — particularly on days known for deep discounts.
-- The big-box retailer now expects comparable sales in the fiscal fourth quarter to grow by about 1.5%. That's better than its most recent outlook
-- Yet the Minneapolis-based discounter did not lift its profit outlook — an indication that deals motivated shoppers. Target anticipates fourth-quarter earnings per share will range from $1.85 to $2.45 and full-year earnings per share will be between $8.30 and $8.90.

CPI
- CPI came mostly as expected or a little hottr than expected
- HOWEVER, Core CPI on MoM and YoY were a little better and that sent market flying
- Stocks had a great week and Bond yields fell
- Seemed a little much considering all of the other data that we have seen

Crypto
- Bitcoin hits a new high over the weekend, Ripple on the move
- New MEMECoins - Trump and Melania Coins are out there
- No perceived value, but Trump coin move up sharply into the inauguration
-- Launched ~ 1/17/2025 $TRUMP - up 560% through the inauguration (2 days) - topped out at $10B market cap (After the Inauguration dropped 30%)
--- OH, of you want, the $MELIANA con is also available now. (Down 16% from inception to after the inauguration)

Saying goodbye to Hindenburg Research
- Founder Nate Anderson announced that the firm is closing
- He outed Adani in India as well as Nikola, Ichan and other major financial "schemes"
- The most recent report they published was on Carvana
- But seems that they have recently reported their last name to the SEC - some pozi scheme that will eventually come out...

Bank Earnings Round Up
- We discussed, but generally good, better margins and investent income solid
- JPM boosts buybacks - even though Dimon says stock is expensive.
- Bank of America on Thursday posted results that topped expectations for profit and revenue on better-than-expected investment banking and interest income. (Investment banking fees surged 44%)
- Morgan Stanley - The bank said that quarterly profit more than doubled to $3.71 billion, or $2.22 a share, from a year earlier, when it had a pair of regulatory charges.

More Burning Food
- Genesis Monita, 19, sued Bill Miller Bar-B-Q Enterprises in October 2023 after she had been served sauce that gave her a second-degree burn earlier in the year.
- Took the breakfast taco out of the bag, sauce fell on her leg and got 2nd degree burns.
- How much sauce was on that taco?
- More than $25,000 was paid to her for medical expenses following her injury and $900,000 was for past and future mental anguish, physical pain and impairment.
- The restaurant franchise was found to be "grossly negligent" by the jury, awarding Monita $1.9 million in punitive damages.

Pelosi - Still got it!
- TEM (+31%) early strength appears to have evolved into a price squeeze. Initial strength triggered by Nancy Pelosi disclosure of $100K Call option purchase.

 

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