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 Warm-Up
- What goes up?
- Uncertainty - that word again!
- American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly.
- Back from India - Namaste....
- Psychological Indicators

Markets
- Follow up - "They call it dumb money - ruling again" - how did that turn out?
---- Quantum stocks down 40-50% YTD
- Billionaires - kissing the ring and getting rug pulled
- TRILLIONS (4) lost in market cap - in the name of what again? (MAGA?) Make America God Awful?
- Germany's stock market hits all-time high (even though economy is not doing well)
- President Donald Trump marked his 50th day in office on Monday. So far, the stock market is off to its worst start since President Barack Obama's first term in 2009. (Have to go back to Nixon for the next "worst" start comparison)

Monday Markets
- Worst day for the Nasdaq since late 2022 (-4%)
- Tesla plunged 15% - worst day on 5 years (Emperor Elon has new clothes?)

Market Update (YTD)
- NAS100 down 7%
- SPY down 4.5%
- SPY Equal Weight down 0.5%
- ! Russell 100 Growth Down 10.5% , Russell 1000 Value up 1%
- Cruise ships and Airlines - Down 20-30%
- Emerging Markets UP 3.5%
- European Stocks up 7%
- China up 16%
- Nat gas up 50%
- WTI Crude - Down 7%|
- 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are off 20% from their recent highs

Down from the highs

Smacked Stocks

Is This the Plan?
- Tariffs as negotiating chip?
--- How Is that working?
- Slashing Government employees and spending
--- Is this the Twitter Plan of re-org?
- Deregulation?
- Tax Cuts?
- Bitcoin Reserve (major disappointment?)
--- Just the forfeited crypto from criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings.
- US Sovereign Wealth Fund
---- Are they taking down markets to get better pricing to then prop up?
- Rates are Down - but not for a good reason (10Yr @ 4.2%)
- - Recession concerns are growing

When will Fed step in to save the day?
--- Fed has taken harder stance - but they don't have the backbone to stay out of it if markets cave

Crypto Check
- Not good
- Bitcoin - big bump post election and then faded - back to exactly where it was pre-election
- ETH - back to levels from Nov 2023

How are the Big Boys doing this year?
- Billionaire Index Top Movers....

Billions and Billions

Elon Update - TSLA
- For seven straight weeks, since Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C. to join the Trump administration, shares in his automaker have declined, closing on Friday at $270.48. It's the longest such losing streak for Tesla in its 15 years as a public company.
- Several Wall Street firms this week, including Bank of America, Baird and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Tesla.
- Elon was bemoaning how hard it was on him and companies right now....running them "with great difficulty"
- President Trump said that in light of this "boycott" of Tesla by the public - he is going out to buy a new Tesla this morning as a sign of support.

Quick AI Check - Tech Update
- Oracle issued quarterly results on Monday that trailed analysts' estimates, but the company offered bullish comments on its cloud infrastructure segment.
- Earnings per share: $1.47 adjusted vs. $1.49 expected
- Revenue: $14.13 billion vs. $14.39 billion expected
- Revenue increased 6% from $13.3 billion in the same period last year. Net income rose 22% to $2.94 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $2.4 billion, or 85 cents a share, a year earlier
- Stock was up on this: "We are on schedule to double our data center capacity this calendar year," Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison said in a release. "Customer demand is at record levels."
--- Update - could not hold in the regular session

Treasury Secretary NOT helping
- "Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure. And look, there's going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,"
- "The market and the economy have just become hooked. We've become addicted to this government spending, and there's going to be a detox period,"

Jobs Jobs Jobs !
- Job growth was weaker than expected in February as the Trump administration began to slash the federal workforce.
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones
- The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.

Going Private
- Walgreens  !
- Sycamore Partners that will take it off the public market for an equity value of around $10 billion.
- VERY LITTLE premium....
- FYI - Wags started in 1927
- Stock down 70% in past 3-years

Greenland still in play
- During a speech to the joint session of Congress
- Trump: "We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America," he said about halfway through his 90-minute speech.
- Trump also pledged to Greenlanders that America would "keep you safe, we will make you rich, and together, we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before."

Govy Shutdown?
- Another item creating uncertainty and concern
- Looks like a stop-gap will be voted on that would postpone a few weeks

Airlines Stocks
- Under pressure - Delta, American etc.
- Guidance slashed as consumers pulling back
- Southwest - charging for checked baggage

Fear and Greed
- Getting some signals that showing some of the recent correction may be

Fear and Greed

Just in....
- 50% tariff on steel from Canada and the offer to make it the 51st state
- What is the point here exactly?
- Wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NO MORE STEEL TARIFFS ON CANADA

 

 

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