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 Warm-Up
- Now Supply Chain Concerns
- Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?
- China factories shutting down
- Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US
- DONE DONE DONE - Lutnick

Markets
- Capital Raise - Big Boost - ELON
- Economics - Big Week
- Earnings - The big tech names are on tap
- Berkshire annual meeting and earnings this weekend

ELON
- Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported.
- The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.
- THIS: The artificial intelligence firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.
- "This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI's advanced AI capability and expertise with X's massive reach."
- ELON also says that he will be stepping back from DOGE and refocus on TESLA

HAHA! FAV STORY!
- Tesla reported a $97 million loss due to digital assets, the company’s Bitcoin holdings. In the fourth quarter, there was a gain of $270 million.
- Tesla now excludes Bitcoin swings from its non-GAAP results.  Tesla also backs out stock-based compensation from its adjusted numbers.
- That means the Bitcoin gains were included in the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted results, and the losses weren’t included in the first-quarter adjusted results.
- Tesla’s report states that the accounting switch was due to the “adoption of the new crypto assets standard.”

Powell Under Fire - Update
- All is good - no new discussions is helping keep a bid under markets

Are Talks Ongoing at ALL?
- China says NO
- US says YES
- Which is it?

DONE DONE DONE
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday teased that the Trump administration has reached its first trade deal, but said it was not fully finalized and declined to name the country involved.
- “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” Lutnick told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.

Unusual Winner
- With consumer sentiment shrinking and concerns about recession
- Travel companies are feeling the pinch - BUT, Travel insurance companies are cashing n on the Cancel for Any Reason Plans
- People want to travel but are hesitant as they don't know what will be in the future - therefore buy travel insurance
- No pure-play publicly traded stock
--  Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection, Nationwide

Amazon White House
- The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.
- "This is hostile and political act by Amazon," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing.
- "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" Leavitt asked.
- Amazon spokesperson tells Washington Post putting tariff rates next to products "was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.
- Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products.
----- What is our take on this?

Big Moves
- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) today announced a long-term collaboration designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.
- HIMS up 25% on the news (Disclosure H&C Clients own HIMS)

Grass is Greener
- Scotts Miracle-Gro to focus on lawn care business after marijuana hopes did not work out, according to Barron's

COVID Supply Chain redux
- Chinese manufacturers are pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs sets in, according to companies and analysts.
- The lost orders are also hitting jobs.
- "I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production," said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.
- "There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees and idling some production."
- SHELVES BARE BY SUMMER

More Supply Chain
- DHL Express, a division of Germany's Deutsche Post said it would suspend global business-to-consumer shipments worth over $800 to individuals in the United States from April 21, as U.S. customs regulatory changes have lengthened clearance
- DHL blamed the halt on new U.S. customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800. The minimum had been $2,500 until a change on April 5.

In the Meantime
- A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data
- The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
- In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023
- Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.

Earnings - Some Bright Spots
- ServiceNow was the second enterprise software company to give better-than-expected guidance this week, helping to boost shares of its peers and making the sector appear to be a potential safe port in a stormy market.
- Not sure why this should be a bright-spot - unless employment report stays looking good

More Bright Spots
- Coca-Cola beat Wall Street's quarterly earnings and revenue estimates Tuesday and largely reaffirmed its full-year outlook, as it said it expects the effects of global trade conflicts to be "manageable."
- Here's what the company reported compared with consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG:
---- Earnings per share: 73 cents adjusted vs. 71 cents expected
-----Revenue: $11.22 billion adjusted vs. $11.14 billion expected

Economics
- First Friday of the Month  = Employment Report
- Estimates are for 125k added to payrolls (last month +228k)
- 4.2% URate is expected
- PCE Prices Wednesday - 0% change
- GDP Advanced - looking for a negative print on that

Build it!
- Budget process
- Republicans in the U.S. Congress plan to introduce a sweeping $150 billion defense package that will give an initial $27 billion boost to President Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile defense shield and bolstering shipbuilding
- The measure would supercharge the national defense budget with new money to build 14 warships and lift homeland security spending. This will add $150 billion to the already approved $886 billion national security budget for 2025
- It will be part of Trump's sweeping tax cuts bill, which will cut taxes by about $5 trillion and add approximately $5.7 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade.

DataCenter Update
- Amazon and Nvidia executives said that the construction of artificial intelligence data centers is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some their plans.
- Remember on the heels of some news from Microsoft scratching some deal flow, there was speculation that there was more of a widespread slowdown.
- "There's been really no significant change," Kevin Miller, Amazon's vice president of global data centers, said at conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. "We continue to see very strong demand, and we're looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up."
- Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker's senior director of corporate sustainability.
----"Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we're seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We're seeing unprecedented growth," Clark said.

Chip Update
- A Wall Street Journal report said Chinese chip designer Huawei Technologies is preparing to test its newest and most powerful AI processor, called the Ascend 910D. Huawei is slated to receive its first batch of the new chips as soon as late May from contract manufacturer Semiconductor Manufacturing International, known as SMIC, the report said.
- NVDA gell on the nws

Sovereign Wealth Fund
- Norges Bank Investment Management — the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world — last week reported a first-quarter loss of 415 billion kroner ($40 billion), citing weakness in the tech sector.
- Fund has $1.8 Trillion of investment - 70% Stocks  - LET'S DISCUSS

Earnings Coming
- Apple, Amazon and Meta
- Exxon, Chevron
- Caterpillar, Pfizer and Eli Lilly

IBM Promises
- IBM will invest $150 billion in the U.S., including on facilities for quantum computer production, over the next five years, the latest American technology company to back the Trump administration's push for local manufacturing.

 

 

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