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Warm-Up
- Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta?
- Port Strike ENDED - for now
- Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida...
- Employment Report

Markets
-Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares?
- Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move
- Yields moving higher
- Robotaxi Day!

Want to Bet?
- A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections.
- This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap
- Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments.
- Thoughts?

Hurricane Milton
- Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area
- Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD
- Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021)
- Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict
-- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil

All Over
- Strike OVER!
- Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977
- Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39.
- NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space.

Budget Deficit - No One Cares
- The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
- The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.
- Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent).
- Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023.
- Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent).
- The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion).
- Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion.

Pfizer
- Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely.
- The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019.

Seriously?
- Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher.
- In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.”

Employment Report
- Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September
- Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year
- Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours
- Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..

Fed Move
- After employment report there was a realization that we may need to consider fewer rate cuts
- (It is amazing that there will be any after that report)
- Chance of 0.25% rate cut 86% - before was higher chance of bigger cut.

EuroZone Flation
- Euro zone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, coming in below the European Central Bank's 2% target, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.
- The core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7%. It was forecast to remain unchanged from the August reading of 2.8%.

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day?
- Tesla has been promoting their upcoming “Robotaxi Day” presentation, set for October 10 at Warner Brothers Studios in Los Angeles. Delayed from August
- According to most reports, There’s one big problem. Tesla doesn’t have a robotaxi system. It’s not even close.
- What will they show? FSD with no wheel or pedals?
--- Or will there be a mssove suprise in store for all of us?

Boeing
- S&P places Boeing Co. ratings, including its 'BBB-' issuer credit rating, on CreditWatch Negative on strike-related financial risk 

China's Stimulus - Bulls on it
- Now there is speculation that the big push by China will help beleaguered names like Starbucks and Nike
- Bulls are making up a story to try to get these names going again

Hang Seng

CHINA - One Day Later
- China state planner lays out further actions to boost economy but no new plans for major stimulus
- FXI and MCHI ETF Down 10-11% (Hang Seng)
- China A Shares - Up 10% on the open, but faded throughout the day as not NEW stimulus offered.

Samsung
- South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics on Tuesday reported that it expects worse-than-expected profit for the third quarter.
- In guidance released Tuesday, the world’s top memory chip maker said operating profit for the quarter ending September is projected to be around 9.10 trillion won, marking a 274% surge from last year’s 2.43 trillion Korean won. However, the figure missed LSEG expectations.
- “The company needs to remain flexible about its memory supply control, since the downfall of conventional DRAM will likely hurt Samsung more than its smaller rivals,” Macquarie Equity Research analysts said in a recent note.

Jeans - Not all styles working
- Levi Strauss & Co  - their overall business is being dragged down by its Dockers brand
- Sales at Levi's brand were up 5% during its fiscal third quarter — the biggest gain in two years
- Stock was down 8% on the news
- During the quarter, sales at Dockers were down 15% to $73.7 million while Beyond Yoga, the buzzy athleisure brand it acquired in 2021, saw sales grow 19% to $32.2 million.
- Work/Life balance leaning toward self enrichment?

Pepsi
- PepsiCo on Tuesday lowered its full-year outlook for organic revenue after its second straight quarter of weaker-than-expected sales.
- Earnings per share: $2.31 adjusted vs. $2.29 expected
- Revenue: $23.32 billion vs. $23.76 billion expected
- Shares have been on a trend lower for a while - so this as seen as buying opportunity

Still In The News
- Nearly two years after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy, a Delaware judge approved the company's reorganization plan, which involves paying out more than $14 billion to customers of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange.
- "Looking ahead, we are poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors through what will be the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate asset distribution in history," said John Ray, who took over as FTX CEO
- The company says it has collected between $14.7 billion and $16.5 billion worth of property for distribution. FTX previously estimated that it owes creditors around $11.2 billion.
- The price of bitcoin is up roughly 260% since FTX's failure.

Betting On The Election
- Now you can do it!
- Once way: Forecast Contracts are traded via IBKR ForecastTrader --> Example: Cost $$0.40 for Harris - If Win you get $1.00)
- Seems that betting on political election outcomes is legal

Red Lobster Autopsy
- It sounds like a shrimp-ly irresistible offer, but Red Lobster’s $20 endless shrimp deal was allegedly the main suspect in the chain’s bankruptcy filing earlier this year, the new CEO said in a recent interview.
- The Los Angeles Times previously reported how some patrons took to social media to brag about how many shrimp they were able to scarf down, including one woman who said she ate 108 shrimp during a four-hour meal.
- $20 all you can eat shrimp

 

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