DHUnplugged #324: The 3-Day Workweek

Employment numbers keep on showing signs of a strong economy. On the other hand, productivity showed a massive drop.3ball

Market continue to creep higher – even in light of valuations and headwinds as the search for yield continues.

Olympic update! What is the deal with advertisers dropping Facebook? And much more …


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

New highs! markets continue to creep higher after a breakout post employment report.

The employment report came in strong with 255k added to payrolls. The official unemployment number now stands at 4.9%. The average workweek was steady at 34.5 hours with a slight uptick to average hourly earnings.

 Employment Chart

With the employment report - markets surged - the S&P 500 hit an all-time high after floating sideways for the past few weeks.
- Productivity is down hard last month and inventories on the rise. What does that portend?

Walmart is buying Jet.com for $3 billion. Now that is going to be interesting competition for Amazon.

Trump's economic plan recently announced:

  • No American company will pay more than 15% in its income; reducing taxes from 35% to 15%.
  • Will cut regulations 'massively'.
  • Lower business tax will kill corporate inversions.
  • Plans to eliminate the estate tax.
  • Proposed reducing income tax to 3 levels not 7 (12%, 25%, and 33%); Prior high for this was 25%.
  • Will target tax-specific loop holes in tax laws.
  • Says no family will have to pay the death tax.
  • Says will kill all 'illegal and over reaching' executive orders.
  • Wants to renegotiate the NAFTA deal; says if U.S. does not get what it wants then he will walk away from the deal.
  • Says will eliminate the Trans Pacific Trade Pact.
  • Reiterates he would repeal Obamacare.

Olympics: A Sky News reporter tweeted that an Olympic kayaker on a practice run capsized after hitting a sofa. The Olympic organizers are currently investigating. (Water where they race is very polluted)

What is with the cupping ? Plenty of Olympic athletes have the red/purple circles from cupping procedures.

Dutch gymnast Yuri van Gelder has been expelled from the Olympics for "gravely" violating team rules by going out for a night of drinking in Rio after qualifying for the finals of the rings event, the Dutch team said.

Medal count? [LINK]

3-day workweek - Carlos Slim (Mexico's richest person) - "It’s important that people don’t retire at 50, 60, or 65 years old. I think people should retire later, because they’ll have more knowledge and experience. And I think they should work three days a week, so that it creates space for others." " This way, there will be less need for transportation. Nations wouldn’t have to face early retirements that are financially destabilizing. The quality of life and having four days a week free would encourage a lot of economic activities—more tourism, entertainment, sports, culture, and education. People can take advantage of those extra days to keep learning."

It looks like Volkswagen's diesel scandal could keep rolling as reports claim that the automaker has three hidden software programs in its 3.0-liter engines.
- That secret software in Volkswagen's 3.0-liter diesels can turn off the vehicles' emissions controls, Reuters reports, citing the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. The emissions control system allegedly shuts off after 22 minutes, when most emissions tests take about 20.

Nikkei Asian Review reported Monday that AMZN Japan was raided by antitrust officials in Japan. Amazon Japan pricing deals with competitors are under antitrust investigation

Walt Disney Co's quarterly profit and revenue on Tuesday beat analysts' estimates fueled by movie studio hits, and the media company said it was taking a stake in a streaming video technology company to sell more content directly to consumers.


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dh_CTP

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Current CTP - Shake Shack

DHUnpluged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)

CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Massive outage for Delta Air - planed grounded worldwide on Monday - what caused this?
- Delta suffered a meltdown of its computer system, causing hundreds of canceled flights and shining another light on the airline industry’s aging technology.

Zika: Four Zika-related biotech companies — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX), Intrexon Corp. (XON), Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INO) and Cerus Corp. CERS), — could potentially benefit from the virus’ spread to the continental U.S., , though each company has a different approach to fighting the virus.

Crude oil: Starting to see headline and murmurs about a potential for OPEC to freeze output - AGAIN! This could mean that there is a bigger glut that thought and they are worried (watch for $35?)

Facebook: Procter & Gamble, the biggest advertising spender in the world, will move away from advertising on Facebook that targets specific consumers after deciding the practice has limited effectiveness. AND
- Facebook is going to start forcing ads to appear for all users of its desktop website, even if they use ad-blocking software. The social network said on Tuesday that it will change the way advertising is loaded into its desktop website to make its ad units considerably more difficult for ad blockers to detect.- - - “This isn’t motivated by inventory; it’s not an opportunity for Facebook from that perspective,” Mr. Bosworth said. “We’re doing it more for the principle of the thing. We want to help lead the discussion on this.”

Corporate bond defaults keep coming. The global default rate among bonds rated below investment grade rose to 4.7% in July from 4.6% in June, Moody’s Investors Service reported Tuesday. The long-term average default rate is 4.2%. The year-to-date tally rose to 102 with 11 defaults in July — they highest monthly count since 2009. (However, HYG and junk bond funds are continuing to rally as the hunt for yield continues)

Judge leaves 14-year sentence intact for ex-Illinois Governor Blagojevich in government corruption case

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of more than 130 Abrams battle tanks, 20 armored recovery vehicles and other equipment, worth about $1.15 billion, to Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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DHUnplugged # 323: Welcome To Zikami

Stocks are reaching levels that may not be sustainable. With European stress tests under scrutiny, banks within the region are getting hit hard while Greek banks have been upgraded from selective default. 2016-08-02_13-50-49

The CDC is now warning people to stay away from Miami as the Zika virus has been showing up more frequently – specifically in the town of Wynmoor in Miami.

Where else can you hear a discussion about Whale poop?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets - 7 days down for DJIA - but nothing major...

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart says keeping a close eye on asset prices as they are particularly buoyant at the moment; need to watch valuations

How much?? The chart below from the Congressional Research Service describes the costs to taxpayers of the four former presidents and one widow, Nancy Reagan, who were given pensions and benefits in fiscal year 2015. In total, taxpayers spent more than $3.2 million on the four former presidents — a tiny sum relative to the $3.7 trillion federal budget, but a healthy chuck of change to spend on people who can earn millions through speaking fees, book deals and other sources of incomes. The president’s fiscal 2017 budget requested an increase to $3.865 million to cover the costs of adding Obama as a former president.

Former Presidential Costs Table

LARRY! In acquisition news, Oracle has agreed to buy NetSuite for $109 a share, or about $9.3 billion. Larry Ellison already owned about 40% of NetSuite, so the deal will net him about $3.5 billion.
European Banking Authority (EBA) releases 2016 EU-wide stress test results: No surprise - With one exception, all banks show CET1 capital levels well above the benchmark of 5.5% used in 2014 in the hypothetical adverse scenario. This reflects the robustness of overall capital levels at the banks tested in the EBA led stress tests. (Italy's Monte Dei Paschi was the only "failure")
UBER OUT IN CHINA - Lost billions... (Approx $35billion) Didi Chuxing announced a strategic agreement with Uber under which Didi Chuxing will acquire all assets of Uber China--including its brand, business operations and data--for operation within mainland China. This landmark transaction signals a new stage in the development of China's rideshare industry.

  • In exchange for the Uber China assets, Uber will receive 5.89% of the combined company with preferred equity interest which is equal to a 17.7% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. In addition, Baidu (BIDU) and other Chinese shareholders will receive a 2.3% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. Under the agreement, Didi Chuxing will also obtain a minority equity interest in Uber. Cheng Wei, founder and chairman of Didi Chuxing, will join the board of Uber. Travis Kalanick, founder of Uber, will join the board of Didi Chuxing.
  • With this transaction, Didi Chuxing becomes the only company with common investment from Tencent (TCEHY), Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu.

Just to show how bad a long-term investment the some of the leveraged ETFs are - The UVXY (2X Short-term Vix) now trades at about $25.25. If you would have owned it since inception ..... See Chart

UVXY Long-Term Chart

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has asked the state’s Department of Corrections and Community Supervision (DOCCS) to bar registered sex offenders from playing the game Pokémon Go, citing concerns that pedophiles could use the app to find or lure victims.
- Supposedly 100 million downloads and company pulling in $10million/day -

Welcome to Zikami - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an unprecedented travel warning Monday, advising pregnant women and their partners not to travel to a small community just north of downtown Miami, where Zika is actively circulating. This is the first time the CDC has warned people not to travel to an American neighborhood for fear of catching an infectious disease, according to agency spokesman Tom Skinner. (Wynmoor specifically)

 - ZIKA: Florida public health investigators have identified 10 additional Zika cases in the Miami area, bringing the total to 14 in the first known outbreak of the virus to be caused by mosquitoes in the continental U.S., Florida Gov. Rick Scott said Monday.


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dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Pfizer (PFE)

pfeCTP

*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***

Current CTP - Shake Shack

 DHUnpluged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)



CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


DOWNGRADE: Global equities are at the upper end of their "fat and flat range," according to Goldman Sachs, who downgraded stocks to "underweight" on Monday as part of its 3-month asset allocation. The bank remains "neutral" on equities over a 12-month period and continues its "overweight" position in cash. The downgrade comes after a rally in risk assets over the past few weeks driven by the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union on June 23 and the search for yield amid expectations of easing. But Goldman suggests equities are now expensive and with weaker-than-expected earnings growth it views this as the right time to downgrade.

Buying Spree? Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, -1.00% on Monday said it's entered an agreement to acquire Fleetmatics Group PLC  in a deal valued at $2.4 billion. Fleetmatics is a mobile workforce solutions company offering businesses the software and means to track and analyze data from their vehicles and, or drivers.

Drink Up! Scientists on opposite sides of the globe appear to be getting closer to harnessing one of red wine’s most elusive health-giving ingredients and putting it into a pill. The ingredient, resveratrol, has been touted for years for its ostensible powers to prolong life and protect against a range of ailments including heart disease, diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. Studies pointing to those benefits have been performed in laboratories on yeast, worms, fruit flies and mice, among other organisms.

Market manipulation: Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutch Bank (DB) to be removed from Euro Stoxx 50 - nicely done index dudes!

Selective Default upgrade : S&P revises ratings/outlook on Greek banks to CCC+ from SD -- Alpha Bank (ALBKY), Piraeus Bank (BPIRY), Natl Bank of Greece (NBG / NBGGY)

More to come? Three senior Irish bankers were jailed on Friday for up to three-and-a-half years for conspiring to defraud investors in the most prominent prosecution arising from the 2008 banking crisis that crippled the country's economy. The trio will be among the first senior bankers globally to be jailed for their role in the collapse of a bank during the crisis.

Greatest job in the world? Recently,  the Washington City Paper reported on what might sound like a dream job to qualified applicants  — the Smithsonian National Museum of American History sought a "Beer Historian" for a three-year appointment.  The job came with an annual salary of $64,650, and curator Paula Johnson told the paper that "the museum is seeking someone who can 'focus and dedicate efforts towards research, documentation, and collecting American brewing history.'"

Children in the Syrian city of Aleppo are burning tires in an attempt to create a no-fly zone above the besieged city. By creating a "smoke curtain" they hope to impede visibility from warplanes that have been carrying out bombing raids.

McDonald's, which is trying to shake its image for serving processed junk food, said Monday it's eliminating some unpalatable ingredients from its most popular menu items. That includes making Chicken McNuggets and other items without artificial preservatives, and removing high-fructose corn syrup from its burger buns.

Privacy advocacy groups are sounding the alarm on LinkNYC, a network of free Wi-Fi kiosks that have been installed across New York City in the past year by CityBridge, which is a consortium of companies such as Qualcomm, CIVIQ Smartscapes, and Intersection, the latter a company in which Sidewalk Labs invested, who is part of Alphabet. ** Seems concern that user data is collected when using ***

More data: A listing has been published today on TheRealDeal Dark Web marketplace, claiming to be offering data on over 200 million Yahoo users.
- While Yahoo says it is currently investigating the breach, the listing has almost instant credibility since it's been put up for sale by the infamous Peace_of_Mind (Peace), the same hacker behind many other verified and proven breaches. If the name still doesn't ring a bell, you should know that Peace previously sold data dumps from sites such as LinkedIn, MySpace, Tumblr, Fling.com, and VK.com. In total, this hacker sold the personal details of over 800 million users, and probably more.

What is JCD writing for PCMag this week?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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DHUnplugged #322: Earnings Deluge

Investors are waiting for the Fed to help prop up markets as over 200 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week.dh07262016

While 68% of companies are beating earnings, not so much discussion about the currency tailwind they are seeing. What happened to transparency?

The RNC and DNC have some great scandals on their hands – if nothing else makes for some very entertaining times. Much more and plenty of ideas to chew on in this episode.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Trouble at the DNC - nice timing on the release of the emails by WikiLeaks. DNC Chair steps down - (but now on Clinton Campaign?)

- Can we discuss why they send emails for sensitive info that can get them in a bind?
- What is wrong with the people that write these types of things down?
- Is this a help to the Republicans?

Blame the Russians:  The FBI is investigating the cybertheft of emails from the Democratic National Committee amid concerns hackers working for Russia are attempting to use the breach to influence the presidential election.

Bernie Sanders, who lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, told his supporters it was important to vote for her to stop Donald J. Trump. Yet many booed that sentiment, and other protesters picked up on the Republicans’ chant of “Lock Her Up.”

Looks like the RNC convention and the DNC email fiasco is lifting Trump in the polls

Latest CNN Presidential Poll

The DNC started off with a bang! Michelle Obama provided a powerful speech...

Final Roll Call - Clinton is the official Dem candidate!

DNC Roll Call Count

Yahoo! (YHOO) core assets bought by Verizon (V) for just under $5 billion. Meyers stays on....But what is the benefit for Verizon? What is Meyers going to do with a simple holding company?

Earnings this week - over 200 companies +/- from S&P 500 are reporting this week. Including Apple, Facebook and other major names - what will this do for markets?

Earnings season update - about 25% of the S&P companies have reported. Estimates are for a drop of 3.7% on a growth basis for earnings this quarter - better than the 5.5% estimated just a few weeks ago. 65% of companies have beat ES estimates and about 58% beat sales estimates. Current P/E ratio on forward basis is still high at 17.5% given conservative estimates.

Apple (AAPL) beats on EPS, in-line on revenue. All major metrics soft as compared to last year same quarter. (Stock up 6%)

(Oh - 3rd straight quarter of sales/revenue drop)

  • Apple Q3 EPS $1.42 vs $1.38 Capital IQ Consensus;
  • Rev $42.4 bln vs $42.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus;
  • Sees Q4 rev $45.5-47.5 bln vs. $45.8 bln consensus
  • Margins were better than expected which is good considering concerns about cheaper product mix
  • Q3 iPhones 40.4 mln vs 40.2 mln ests vs 47.5 mln last year.
  • Q3 iPads 9.95 mln vs 8.7 mln ests vs 10.9 mln last year.
  • Q3 Macs 4.2 mln vs 4.6 mln ests vs 4.4 mln last year.

Twitter beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; Raises low end of FY16 EBITDA guidance (Stock down 10%)

Conference call notes:

  • Seeing an improvement in engagement driven by product changes not associated with live content it has launched (has only done 2 events).
  • DAU to MAU ratio remains stable; saw an improvement in tweet impressions.
  • Focused on Live sport, news/politics/ and entertainment.
  • For guidance, evaluating what has happened in July and how quarter ended; factoring in bookings and what it sees happening; launching more streaming products in September (notes only two NFL games in quarter so will not have a big impact in Q3).
  • Video is now the #1 ad format in terms of revenue on TWTR. (????)

So much for breakfast all -day - McDonald's posts a rather weak quarter with tepid outlook - shares down 4%.

Have you noticed? Remember when companies were whining and complaining that currency headwinds and how they would provide "Constant Currency" comparables? Now that there is a currency tailwind over the past quarter - no one seems to be talking about the constant currency anymore.

Oil at multi-month lows -  clipping $43.

Barrons: Investors looking for safety and income have driven utility stocks to pricey levels and low yields. The rally may not be quite over yet, but don’t play chicken—it’s time to take profits.

Turkey Mess: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is detaining journalists, while others are being fired or having their credentials revoked.


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dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Pfizer (PFE) Next week

Current CTP - Shake Shack

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Nintendo (NTDOY) - company announced that the profitability from Pokemon Go will be negligent - stock tumbles.

Japan is asking for the Fukushima nuclear exclusion zone to be classified as a no-go area for Pokémon after the discovery of at least one of the game’s characters on a power station’s site. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (Tepco) has requested that Pokémon Go developer Niantic and the Pokémon Company prevent Pokémon appearing in and around areas affected by the nuclear reactor meltdown in Fukushima to help prevent encouraging players to enter dangerous areas.

The highest-paid CEOs tend to run some of the worst-performing companies, according to new research. The study, carried out by corporate research firm MSCI, found that for every $100 (£76) invested in companies with the highest-paid CEOs would have grown to $265 (£202) over 10 years. But the same amount invested in the companies with the lowest-paid CEOs would have grown to $367 (£279) over a decade.

Everything has to be a movie?  Streaming service Netflix said on Tuesday it had acquired the rights to a book written by two German investigative journalists and was turning it into a feature movie to be produced by John Wells. It is the second proposed movie on the scandal that thrust tax havens and transparency into the spotlight after the details of hundreds of thousands of clients' tax affairs were leaked from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca in April by an anonymous whistleblower.

Purchases of new U.S. single-family homes rose in June to the highest level in more than eight years, indicating a firm and resilient housing market. Sales increased 3.5 percent to a 592,000 annualized pace, the fastest since February 2008, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday in Washington. Figures for May were revised higher. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 560,000 rate.

Oil - tapping $42 as price slumps to multi-week low. We are now entering the slowest time of year for oil demand.

Facebook (FB) earnings out tomorrow - does the massive ad engine start to slow? (Still do not see any ads on FB)

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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DHUnplugged #321: Energizer Bunny Markets

Markets acting like the Energizer Bunny – Keeps going an going and going… Seems that world events, economic headwinds and even coup attempts are not enough to dissuade investors from throwing their money into stocks. bunnymarkets

Earnings season is well underway with hundreds of companies reporting over the next couple of weeks.

John nails it with his latest pick !


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Markets unfazed by escalating violence and coup in Turkey - setting all-time highs almost daily for DJIA and SP500.

How full of shit are they? IMF's Christine Lagarde said that Turkey's central bank did a great job containing markets and currency moves in response to Coup attempt. (No! - Lira off by 4% and markets down 5%)
- Update Lira now lower than when coup was headline....
- Massive move by Erdogan govy to take control, fire judges, politicians and seek to bring back death penalty

Softbank buys ARM Holdings (ARMH) with a 45% premium. Brexit may be some of reason with BP

Netflix Q2 International Net Additions 1.52 mln vs 2.00 mln guidance; For Q3 NFLX expects addition of 2 mln, expectations were in the range of 2.70-2.85 mln; Q1 Adds was 4.51
- US Net additions only 160k
- Churn due to higher rate on older subs that got rate hike
- International lower than expected
- Company beat on EPS by $0.07 (expectations of $0.02) - guided lower than expectations
- Company commentary about why they fell short was focused on the churn (they don't expect that to continue) and also spent a lot of time trying to show that it was not competition
- STOCK DOWN 14%

IBM prelim Q2 $2.95 vs $2.89 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.24 bln vs $20.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate - had one segment (Watson) that showed growth.

Goldman Sachs (GS) Beat by 0.67 - however this was on lowered estimates. Looking at March estimates - company just met.. (Big revisions to estimates over the past several months to make bar lower)

Yahoo! said that its revenue in the second quarter fell 15 percent, after excluding accounting adjustments, and its operating profit fell 64 percent. Yahoo also acknowledged that Tumblr — its biggest acquisition under its current chief executive, Marissa Mayer — was now worth only one-third of the $1.1 billion that Yahoo paid for it in 2013.

Microsoft prelim Q4 $0.69 vs $0.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.64 bln vs $22.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate  - Stock up 3% after-hours

JCD Called it: British voters, it turns out, can’t actually remove their country from the European Union. Only their elected leaders can do so. Since the June 23 referendum, the debate has turned to whether the new prime minister, Theresa May, can initiate the country’s EU exit without first seeking permission from Parliament. The question has sparked what could turn into a wave of legal challenges, known as judicial reviews. The first one begins Tuesday.

More Brexit fallout: Concerns over the U.K.'s Brexit referendum significantly hampered confidence in Germany's economy in July, with the ZEW survey of economic sentiment sliding to the lowest level since 2012. The indicator slumped to negative 6.8 points, down from 19.2 in June.

Big trouble at RNC - Seems that there was some plagiarism:

Here is Trump, on Monday:

"From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise, that you treat people with respect. They taught and showed me values and morals in their daily lives. That is a lesson that I continue to pass along to our son," Trump said.

And we need to pass those lessons on to the many generations to follow. Because we want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

And here is Obama, on August 25, 2008:

"And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you're going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don't know them, and even if you don't agree with them.

And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and to pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children -- and all children in this nation -- to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of this CTP - Nike (NKE)

Current CTP - Pfizer (PFE)

2016-07-18_10-14-22

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Nintendo (NTDOY) - some discussion that ZAGG would be a beneficiary of the Pokemon craze.... Connection? Stock was up 11%, filled gap today then retreated.

ZAGG Chart

More: McDonald’s Holdings Co. (Japan) saw its shares jump as much as 23 percent, the biggest daily gain since its July 2001 listing after it started giving away figurines based on Pokemon characters such as Pikachu with sales of Happy Meals on Friday. Nintendo Co.’s mobile game Pokemon Go, which has sparked a worldwide frenzy, still isn’t available in Japan where the cartoon series was first created.

NTDOY Updtae: (We shorted for client portfolios today - closed soon after as it filled lower gap for 8% profit)

Russian track-and-field athletes had already been banned from this summer’s Olympics for using performance-enhancing drugs. On Monday, the World Anti-Doping Agency released a report on the alleged state-run doping scheme at the 2014 Sochi Olympics. No surprise, perhaps. Now Curling, Beach volleyball and ..... Ping-pong!

Herbalife (HLF) - FTC out with "verdict" on the Pyramid Scheme - NOT a Pyramid scheme BUT fines company $200m and mandates changes to biz practices - does this seem like the company is in the clear?
-If company needs to change the way they operate that has made them so successful for so long, will they maintain profitability?

Anything to this? : Women over 40 are having more babies than the under 20s for the first time in nearly 70 years, official figures for England and Wales show. The Office for National Statistics data showed there were 697,852 live births in 2015. There were 15.2 births per 1,000 women aged over 40, compared with just 14.5 per 1,000 women in their teens. The last time the over 40s had the higher fertility rate was in 1947, in the wake of WWII.

Still at it: Tesla Motors: Elon Musk tweets - "Will be working at Tesla on Autopilot & Model 3 today, then aiming to pull an all-nighter and complete the master product plan

Andrew was on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show today and will be guest on Frank Curzio's podcast next week. Also, upcoming guest this week on TDI Podcast is Dr. Daniel Crosby - Author of The Laws of Wealth

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #320: Pokeman GO Markets

Brexit turned out to be nothing. In fact markets making new highs as the promise of stimulus and liquidity quiet market fears.ppokeman

Meanwhile, several U.K. based real estate funds are denying withdrawals as investors are pulling out too much money. Bonds rallying hard along with equities as the flight to safety pushes sovereign debt “more” negative. Crazy times….

What comes next as earnings season begins?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

A teaser from Elon Musk: Master plan 2 for Tesla - Tweeted... What a master of manipulation!

Stocks up post Brexit. S&P 500 hits ALL TIME HIGH - DJIA right behind.
- Governments panic over Brexit pushed out liquidity and the potential for stimulus and now that there is not much fallout money rushing into stocks
- US 10Y bond sub 1.5%
- Commodities ramp (Gold, Silver, Copper)

Update from Myanmar - incredible trip - posted some pix on Twitter. Very poor country - highlight was cooking class on Inle River.

Interesting culture of food - most meals come with an array of salads (Penny Wort, Asparagus flower, Pickled teea leaves, tomatoes)
- AND the river is like a giant hydroponic garden for most vegetables.

Key Reversal Indicator flashing a warning sign that an imminent move lower is possible (may be shallow but market well overbought)

KRI Indicator

Pokeman GO app is something of a phenomenon. Going to be lots of injuries with this augmented reality app.
-A man has suffered the full pains of Pokemon Go after accidentally becoming the owner of a gym. Boon Sheridan woke up to find that the hugely popular augmented reality game had decided that his house was one of the game’s important gyms. That means that people are rewarded for coming to it in real life – resulting in what he said was dozens of people outside his door.

AND: At least one military base is warning service members against the dangers of wandering into unauthorized areas while chasing Pokemon. "Since Pokemon Go hit last week there have been reports of serious injuries and accidents of people driving or walking while looking at the app and chasing after the virtual Pokemon," says the message posted this morning to the Joint Base Lewis McChord official Facebook page. "Do not chase Pokemon into controlled or restricted areas, office buildings, or homes on base."

** Will the app be another way for advertising as perhaps the places that have the things to find pay to get on the game? (That is genius)

In a recent development, Intel is jotting down the options for Intel Security and it might plan to sell the Antivirus maker software formerly known as McAfee. Six years ago, the same software maker was bought by Intel for $7.7 billion. Even though Intel has declined to offer any clarity on the issue, people who are part of the ongoing discussion have indicated that the Silicon Valley chipmaker might be considering options for selling their cyber security unit to bankers, and if at all the deal is materialized, it’d be one of the largest within the sector.

SBUX - The coffee chain will boost prices on selected coffee beverages at company-operated U.S. stores, effective today. Starbucks said certain sizes of brewed coffee will see increases of 10 cents to 20 cents per cup.

Seagate is cutting 6,500 jobs or about 14 percent of the hard disk drive maker's global workforce. That announcement comes only a few weeks after Seagate announced it would reduce 1,600 jobs. Seagate also boosted its revenue guidance for the quarter that ended July 1, saying demand for its drives was strong.

The bottom line of the state of global finance:

US officials refused to prosecute HSBC for money laundering in 2012 because of concerns within the Department of Justice that it would cause a "global financial disaster", a report says. A US Congressional report revealed UK officials, including Chancellor George Osborne, added to pressure by warning the US it could lead to market turmoil. The report alleges the UK "hampered" the probe and "influenced" the outcome. HSBC was accused of letting drug cartels use US banks to launder funds.
- The bank, which has its headquarters in London, paid a $1.92bn (£1.48bn) settlement but did not face criminal charges. No top officials at HSBC faced any charges.

Can we talk about the rash of violence that is happening all over the world?

Still don't get it - Twitter is set to live-stream some of Bloomberg LP's television programs, the latest in a series of content deals struck by the microblogging service this year. (are they going to be another TV ?)


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of  (none this week)

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Winner announced next week

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Lawyers filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Facebook Inc., alleging it allowed the Palestinian militant Hamas group to use the platform to plot attacks that killed four Americans and wounded one in Israel, the West Bank and Jerusalem. “Facebook has knowingly provided material support and resources to Hamas in the form of Facebook’s online social network platform and communication services,” making it liable for the violence against the five Americans, according to the lawsuit sent to Bloomberg by the office of the Israeli lawyer on the case, Nitsana Darshan-Leitner.

Have you seen this survey? Seems bogus...  GOBankingRates.com survey that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account.

Venezuela:

Citi is planning to shut down the Venezuelan government's foreign currency accounts, according to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Citi has not made any official announcement, but Maduro criticizes the move as a "blockade."

Kimberly-Clark's plant in Venezuela will be taken over and re-activated by the government, according to the country's labor minister. The U.S. consumer products company said Monday it was suspending operations at the plant due to deteriorating economic conditions and a shortage of raw materials.

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto was clear and blunt in his view of Donald Trump's proposed wall on the U.S. and Mexican border: There's no way his country is paying for it.

Elon Musk has no plans to disable Tesla’s Autopilot function in the wake of a fatal crash of a Model S electric car. The auto maker instead plans to redouble efforts to educate customers.

Germany Europe's growing army of robot workers could be classed as "electronic persons" and their owners liable to paying social security for them if the European Union adopts a draft plan to address the realities of a new industrial revolution.

PARTY! TMZ is claiming the former NBA star Lamar Odom had to be taken off a Delta Airlines flight leaving Los Angels on Monday night after getting drunk in the airport lounge and vomiting on the plane.

Jeep will resume production of the classic Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer model after 2019 as the brand's luxury "pinnacle," Jeep boss Mike Manley told industry trade magazine Automotive News.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #319: Brexit Wrecks It

The Brexit vote sent shock wave throughout financial markets. What really happened and what is the outlook for Europe and the rest of the world?brexitonly

Is there a chance for a re-vote and an undo of the referendum? Markets jolted, financial leaders say be calm, but is this a short-term sell off or is something more ominous in store? Markets lost over $2 trillion over the last few days…

We cover the ins and outs of the markets, what could be in store and some ideas on how to profit.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Brexit - Brexit - Brexit
- JCD explanation of what happened.
- Is it true the most Google'd term in UK is "What is the European Union"  ??
- Listen to latest No Agenda show for amazing coverage - Open the Chunnel! [LINK TO MP3] - Can it be reversed? (U.K. politicans say NO!)

Markets plunged around the world - MSCI Global equity index down 5% Friday, another 2% today
- Us markets hit with DJIA down 600, S&P 500 down 4% and small caps down 4.5%
- U.S. equity futures were locked down limit for about 30 minutes after the vote counted.
- S&P cuts UK rating to AA from AAA; Outlook Negative
- Crude oil down 5%, Gold up 5%

Currencies were whipped around - British pound - 7.5%, Yen +3% (clipped 100) , Euro -3% (1.10)

European banks hammered - down 15% - 25%
- DB (-17%), SAN (-19%), RBS (-27%) , LYG (-23%), BCS (-22%) , BBVA (-19%)

US Major banks
- JPM (-7%) , BAC (-7%), MS (-10%), GS (-7%)
- Smaller regions did much better

European Insurers also slammed
- ING (-19%), AV (-21%), ALIZF (-13%)

US Airlines
- DAL (-8%) , AAL (-11%)
- Smaller regions did much better

Over $2 trillion lost over past couple of days in markets - worst day ever loss in $ terms ....

Let's take a look how European markets did on Friday - (ETFs)

Europe ETfs

Time to buy some of these beaten down names????

(Trading in Barclays and RBS shares was suspended on Monday morning following heavy losses on the London Stock Exchange.)

What is the chance that the Brexit will now cause further European Union referendums to exit.

Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovlong. Latervia. Byegium.. until EU reach the state of Germlonely.

You have to love the commentary coming out of the "experts" in high places:

- IMF's Lagarde: "Markets got Brexit vote it wrong, but don't panic"

Where does market go from here? Looking at fundamentals value could be seen at 1,930 - 1950 on S&P 500. Already DJIA is down 900 points since Friday.

**** US 10-year treasury at 1.45%  - LOWEST ON RECORD **** 

This week:

- Tuesday, an E.U. leadership summit begins in Brussels; the Conference Board presents its June consumer confidence index; the April Case-Shiller home price index appears; the BEA issues its final estimate of Q1 GDP; and Nike reports quarterly results.

- Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, and Bank of England governor Mark Carney take part in a panel discussion at an ECB forum in Portugal; Wall Street will also pay attention to May pending home sales, May personal spending figures, and earnings news from General Mills, Monsanto, and Pier 1.

- Thursday, a new initial claims report complements earnings from ConAgra Foods, Constellation Brands, Darden Restaurants, and Paychex.

- Friday, investors consider ISM’s June U.S. manufacturing PMI and China’s latest factory PMI reading.

** During the market swoon on Friday, some interesting things occurred. Once in particular - Betterment (pure roboadvisor) shut down trading until early afternoon.
--- So many emails over past year about companies like Robinhood or Betterment as they are cheap and app based. Anyone learning a lesson on this? Will this show that it pays to pay for some help from a human?

On Twitter - someone asked if anyone has hear from the Queen on Brexit - I think I saw a comment: Brexit: Why Yes! I will have truffled eggs, a buttered muffin with gooseberry jam and tea - two lumps"

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Biogen

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Open for entries

dh_ctp_Biogen

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

**** Getting many requests from listeners that they want to BUY the shirt ******


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Podcast awards update ? NO AGENDA WINS!!!!!!!! (News category)

Hate crimes n the rise post-Brexit vote - what is that all about?

Barron's cover this week - U.S. companies depend on domestic customers, which helps to insulate them from problems abroad. (some truth to that....but not in all cases)

Chinese authorities will require Baidu Inc. and other search engines to report banned content and verify advertisers’ qualifications in its latest attempt at Internet regulation. Under rules to take effect Aug. 1, search engines operating in the country will be prohibited from providing banned information in various formats including links, summaries, cached pages, associative words, related searches and relevant recommendations, the Cyberspace Administration of China said in a statement. They will also be required to report websites and applications that contain prohibited content when spotted, the regulator said.

Sad: New York’s landmark Waldorf Astoria hotel is scheduled to close in spring 2017 so owner Anbang Insurance Group Co. can begin converting most of the more than 1,400 rooms to luxury condominiums, said a person with knowledge of the plans.

Hawaii's governor signed a bill making it the first state to place its residents who own firearms in a federal criminal record database and monitor them for possible wrongdoing anywhere in the country, his office said.

Watch China currency - lowest in years as safe haven trades are preferred.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #318: Two Days and Counting

Countdown to the Brexit vote – two days from now we will know the result. Some are predicting that if the U.K. were to vote to leave that the pound could drop and a global recession would ensue.brexit2

Janet Yellen testifies to Congress over the next two days, shedding light on some of the Fed’s recent decisions. Dovish commentary and a defensive posture should be the overall tone – with nothing new to illuminate us on the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Netflix has a new “icon” and advertisers have a new way twist to an up and coming technology – all this and more on this episode.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

~ Quick note: AH will be traveling the next two weeks ~

Markets in a bit of a tailspin and incredible rally after the latest Brexit poll. SURGING on weekend poll. Each day another poll update is released from various parties. Sunday the "stay" camp saw an uptick - pushing up stocks globally. Today the "leave" camp saw an increase by 2%

Oil back above $50 after a sizable draw-down of inventories reported after the close on Tuesday.

Yellen testimony to Congress today and tomorrow  -
-- Asked about forward Guidance: Yellen said that the Fed is not relying much on forward guidance right now. Says a projections are helpful to the public, but not a commitment on policy. Says paths can change over time as economic outlook is updated.
-- Asked about most recent jobs report: Says that labor market continues to perform well; not overemphasizing one jobs report. Says can watch economic developments since inflation is low.

BREXIT Poll Update

Last week's title to episode was about China not being denied MSCI inclusion - had a picture with that and only one follower mentioned that the picture was had Japanese writing...

BIG NEWS after the close today - Tesla (TSLA) offering to buy SolarCity (SCTY). SCTY up 15% on news to $24.35 (offer may be approx $26-$28) and Tesla SLAMMED down 12%.
- All share deal - no cash but....
- Serious headscratcher - Tesla does not have the money to do the deal as it needs all it has and more to build factories to produce cars.
- What is synergy?
- Hail Mary attempt to prop price of SCTY for Elon Musk?
- Musk majority owner of both companies. Cousin is CEO of SolarCity

TSLA/SCTY After Hours

Noticing that Bloomberg has a fascination with writing about watches. Now Barron's cover is about the best watches of 2016 [LINK] - AND they are expensive! Is this just adverts?

Speaking of covers - New York Daily News covers are even more nuts than ever.... SEE LINK

NY criminalizes bots buying up tickets - Ticketing outlets and credit card companies revealed that bots scoop up the best seats in seconds, which scalpers then resell at prices many times over face value. Scalpers who exploit such software could now face criminal, class A misdemeanor charges. (Hamilton tickets - LOOK at these prices!)

Fresh food - natural food - sham -  The popular U.S. grocery chain Trader Joe's Co agreed to spend $2 million to reduce refrigerator coolant leaks at 453 stores, to settle federal claims it failed to promptly repair leaks that deplete the ozone layer and contribute to global warming. Trader Joe's also agreed to enter a consent decree and pay a $500,000 civil fine to resolve claims it violated the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Department of Justice and Environmental Protection Agency said on Tuesday.

Final rules: New drone rules from the Federal Aviation Administration limit most small commercial drone operations to daylight hours and require operators to get certified every two years.

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Biogen next show.

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Open for entries on 6/23/16

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

**** Getting many requests from listeners that they want to BUY the shirt ******


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Anything here? Donald Trump and his campaign manager are parting ways, according to a New York Times report confirmed by the Trump campaign.

How does something like this happen? Anton Yelchin, a rising actor best known for playing Chekov in the new "Star Trek" films, was killed by his own car as it rolled down his driveway early Sunday, police and his publicist said. The car pinned Yelchin, 27, against a brick mailbox pillar and a security fence at his home in Los Angeles, Officer Jenny Hosier said. He had gotten out of the vehicle momentarily, but police did not say why he was behind it when it started rolling. (As it turns out - his Jeep SUV was under recall due to problems with gear shift)

Brazil’s federal government must provide financial support to the nearly-bankrupt state of Rio de Janeiro in order to avoid the shame of a disappointing Olympics, according to a top official in the administration of Acting President Michel Temer.

New twist to technology - Virtual reality/augmented reality is now going to be looked at by advertisers as a way to further clutter our lives. makes sense, but what a bummer. [LINK]

A page from SnapChat? Twitter today is taking another step to build up its machine learning muscle, and also potentially to improve how it delivers photos and videos across its apps: the company is acquiring Magic Pony Technology, a company based out of London that has developed techniques of using neural networks (systems that essentially are designed to think like human brains) and machine learning to provide expanded data for images — used, for example, to enhance a picture or video taken on a mobile phone; or to help develop graphics for virtual reality or augmented reality applications.

Follow up - A federal judge said two Starbucks customers may pursue a lawsuit accusing the coffee chain of cheating patrons by underfilling lattes. In a decision on Friday, U.S. District Judge Thelton Henderson in San Francisco said the California plaintiffs may seek damages from Starbucks in their proposed nationwide class action, including for fraud and false advertising.
Starbucks was accused of overcharging customers by systematically serving lattes that are 25 percent too small, based on a recipe it adopted in 2009 to save money on milk.

New speed record - A 10 million core Chinese supercomputer called Sunway TaihuLight now ranks as the world's fastest, nearly tripling the previous supercomputer speed record with a rating of 93 petaflops per second. That's 93 quadrillion floating point operations per second (or 93 million billion).

Venezuela - this is a travesty. Some digging though garbage as there is no food, while others sipping champagne at country club. [LINK]

A thought - Adobe (ADBE) reported earnings after the close and stock was down as it missed some targets/guidance. Historically shown the buyers step in - just sayin'.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #317: China – DENIED

China markets were once again denied the coveted inclusion by MSCI in a further setback to the markets. deniedchna

Brexit worries are preventing new market highs as trades are unwound ahead of the June 23rd vote and hopes are alive that the Fed will say something, anything that will reignite a flame for bulls to keep buying…

What to make of the VIX? Microsoft’s purchase of LinkedIn and more…

Please check out YestoBitcoins.com


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Sponsor: This episode is sponsored by YestoBitcoins.com


Markets in a bit of a tailspin after the latest Brexit poll. With the Fed meeting this week - is this just a way of pressing on the Fed to not do anything?

Retail sales for May came in slightly better than expected, but still nothing to get too excited about.
- U.S. luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus Group Ltd LLC reported its third straight quarterly drop in sales at established stores and a nearly 81 percent fall in profit amid a slowdown in apparel spending.
- What is going on with higher end retail ???

The VIX - skyrocketing - 50%+ over past few days to a high of over 21 today. Was under 13 last week. The last time  we saw this lvel was back in February as markets were being sold off in a hard correction. Moves like this often signal bottoming potential as many are seeking to buy protection at any price.

Microsoft (MSFT) buying LinkedIn (LNKD) for 50% premium - about $25 billion. Any other targets?
- LinkedIn down 13% YTD even after the $196 price paid...
- Twitter shares surge on the report as hope is alive that they will become a target for acquisition

Brexit - the polls now show a lead to the LEAVE side of things - markets are moving along with every headline. Some listener emails about what will benefit and what will see more problems.

Apple WWDC - anything exciting???? Stock did not price as anything was incrementally beneficial....

MAC

  • Mac OS will feature universal clipboards for copying and pasting across devices.
  • Mac OS will allow desktop saved files available for download from iPhone and iPad.
  • Mac OS will feature Apple Pay for the web.
  • Mac OS will feature SIRI for Mac

TV

  • Apple TV now has 1300 video channels.
  • Will feature ability to watch 4 sports games at one time through Fox Sports Go (FOXA).
  • Apple TV will feature Sling TV with many cable channels.  (DISH, NFLX)
  • Apple TV introduces TV remote applications where you can change channels from iOS device without reaching for Apple TV remote.
  • Apple TV will feature 'Dark Mode'
  • Apple TV OS will available this Fall.

Watch

  • New WatchOS accelerates application launch time.
  • New WatchOS will feature a 'dock' feature for recently used apps on the Watch.
  • Will have feature to reply to messages without tapping reply.
  • New WatchOS will allow users to write on the screen.

After a seemingly interminable wait, the yield on Germany's 10-year sovereign debt has dropped below zero for the first time. The shift into negative territory is part of a continuing trend across global markets that has seen record low yields and surging volatility in developed market sovereign debt.

Investors will be watching China as MSCI Inc. is set to announce early Wednesday local time whether they are going to include mainland shares in their global benchmark indices. NO! Declined for the second time around. MSCI said China had made "significant steps" towards bringing the market "closer to international standards".
- However, the US financial data firm said its "extensive global consultation" showed that Beijing had not addressed all its concerns over barriers to foreign investors.
- MSCI added that it would retain the option to include the A-shares as part of its next market classification review in 2017.

More tech nonsense - Twitter invests $70 million into Soundcloud.


"Use your bitcoins to to get gift-cards for stores in North America, Europe or Asia at YesToBitcoins.com . We have been accepting bitcoins as payment, for gift-cards since 2014.
Go to YestoBitcoins.com

Check out YestoBitcoins.com


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Fitbit (FIT)

fitbitctp

Currently CTP = Biogen (BIIB)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

Since inception - withing 2 basis points of each other.....

- Neck and neck since inception - Ole Codger's Portfolio slightly ahead....

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Dead or not? The two largest daily fantasy sports companies, FanDuel Inc and DraftKings Inc, are in early-stage talks to merge, people familiar with the matter said on Monday, as the industry faces a crackdown by U.S. states over whether it runs illegal gambling.

OOPS! A Goldman Sachs executive footed the bill for prostitutes and the bank paid for a lavish trip to Dubai for the brother of a decision-maker at Libya's sovereign wealth fund, a lawyer for the fund alleged on Monday, in a case it has brought against Goldman in London's High Court.

In the wake of the Orlando massacre at popular nightclub Pulse, where 49 people were pronounced dead, a local Chick-Fil-A opened up on a Sunday to cook up hundreds of their famous chicken sandwiches and batches of their sweet tea.

Back to nuclear? The Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Watts Bar Unit 2 was connected to the power grid on June 3, becoming the first nuclear power plant to come online since 1996, when Watts Bar Unit 1 started operations. Watts Bar Unit 2 is undergoing final testing, producing electricity at incremental levels of power, as TVA prepares to start commercial operation later this summer. The new reactor is designed to add 1,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity to southeastern Tennessee.

More than 45,000+ people are currently on the wait list to eat a meal, naked,at London's much-anticipated The Bunyadi (aka the "naked restaurant"), which officially opens this month.
- Once diners get inside, remove their clothes and relinquish their smartphones, they will chose between two menus: naked non-vegan and naked vegan. The former features goji berry steak tartare with stinging nettle oil and cured salmon with seaweed salad. The latter features a sweet and salty "forage plate" and an asparagus dish with salted almonds, pickled red onion and melon. Both go for £69, which also gets you a robe and slippers. Wine (which you will probably need a lot of) is extra.

So what do we think of Soros and Ichan now? Are they right to be so pessimistic?

Appears that Russian hackers hacked the DNC site/info bank and stole info on Trump. How will that be used?

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #316: Organized Confusion

The weakest jobs report in years does not dissuade investors from piling into equities. While there is plenty of headwinds for markets, there is seemingly no thought to any downside potential. Oil is helping to keep a floor under pconfusingrices as production has dropped and rumors continue to floated from OPEC.

Fed speakers are talking both sides of the story – ignore weak jobs numbers as the economy is in good shape while rate hikes may not be in the cards due to many concerning factors. Which story to believe? What is for sure is the the Fed wants to create confusion to keep investors guessing over what their next move will be.

Please check out  YestoBitcoins.com


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Sponsor: This episode is sponsored by YestoBitcoins.com


As Gomer Pyle would say: "Surprise, Surprise"
- Jobs report came in very light with on 38k new additions to payroll. However, the Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% (Nov 2007 was last time unemployment rate was this low)      ?? Is this a weak or strong report?
- About 450k dropped out of labor force
- Some weakness due to the Verizon strike (35k)
- Last 2 months data revised down by 50K
- Average adds over 3-months 116k
- Wage growth was up slightly

With the weak jobs report the probability of a Fed rate hike in June dropped from 20% to 4% - through Fed futures outlook.

USD dropped hard on the report and sent gold, silver screaming higher - equity markets were not too thrilled - but recovered - now the S&P 500 is just 1% from all-time high. DJIA hit 18,000 in early trade.
- Are the negative interest rates finally kicking in?

Is the Fed creating "Organized Confusion" purposely? (Fed speakers out with both sides of the story - ignore the jobs report as economy is strong, but rates to remain low)

Oil holding close to the $50 level as almost all of the Nigerian pipelines are offline. Rebel attacks are causing major problems. Corrupt country - could big boys be helping to the rebels?????

Economic news just in:

  1. Among six regions that Moody's assesses, the decline in growth is most pronounced in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Here, Moody's estimates that average median growth will be 2.6% from 2013 to 2016 compared to average growth of 6.5% from 2005 to 2008.
  2. World Bank cuts 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows

Podcast Awards voting is open!


 

OPEC met to attempt to agree on "production caps" and the meeting ended with no agreement - again. But oil was unfazed as reports of a 9% drop in production over the past few months due to U.S. rigs offline. WTI Crude ~ $50.

Last week there was a some news about auto sales that was of interest. Is peak-auto now a thing?

  • Automotive News reports that May 2016 marked the biggest monthly sales drop for the U.S. auto industry in nearly six years.
  • The downturn was driven by a big drop in demand for passenger cars and two fewer selling days this May than the year-ago period.
  • May 2016 was only the industry's eighth monthly sales decline since 2009.
  • Automotive News, citing True Car estimates, indicated average incentives per vehicle increased 7.1% to $3,034 in May versus the same period a year ago.

Snapchat Inc. has 150 million people using the service each day, said people familiar with the matter. That makes the four-year-old messaging app more popular than Twitter Inc. by daily active users.

FitBit - seeing more competition - Now Samsung out with a fitness tracking product for write and... ear? IConX earbuds.

Samsung IConX

In other Fitness tracker news, Wisconsin farmer has developed a fitness tracker chip for cows. Farmer can scan chip with smartphone app to measure all sorts of data on a cow's daily trek - BoviSynch

Valeant Pharma (VRX) - Down 15% today as it finally released its quarterly earnings report and outlook after a significant delay. Outlook was not pretty. Interesting that big value players like Bill Miller was toughting this one recently - he should know that there will not be a bailout for this company. (he was toughing the banks when they swooned back in financial crisis)


"Bitcoins can buy you pretty much anything if you trade them for gift cards.
YesToBitcoins.com sells gift cards from stores in Europe, Asia and North America.
Disclaimer: John C Dvorak doesn't like bitcoins but YesToBitcoins.com likes John C Dvorak"

Check out YestoBitcoins.com


dh_CTP

Currently CTP = Fitbit (FIT)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

** Need to pick stock for next CTP **


Interesting news from T-Mobile: Company is giving stock shares to customers. In a way to boost sales and reward customers (and to potentially increase stock holders)  Trend?

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

- Neck and neck since inception - Ole Codger's Portfolio slightly ahead....

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


For the Rio Olympics Visa is using the event to introduce a new ring that will let people pay with a wave of their hand: No phone, wallet or even battery needed. Just wave over the scanner to pay. But is this smart? (only limited number going to be available to athletes, but will athletes wear and what if they lose it?) [LINK]

The famed Los Angeles mansion of Hugh Hefner, founder of the Playboy empire, is under contract to be sold to private equity executive Daren Metropoulos, a Playboy Enterprises spokesman said on Monday. The Gothic Tudor-style mansion, which has an area of 20,000 square feet (1,858 square meters), was listed earlier this year for $200 million, Reuters reported in January.

Still going: Pharma industry entrepreneur Martin Shkreli pleaded not guilty Monday to an updated indictment that added a new conspiracy charge to the criminal allegations against him — then jeered at federal prosecutors in a live-streamed exchange.

Getting out of hand: Uber, the ride-hailing firm is extending a system in which drivers charge riders a "wait times" fee if they take more than two minutes to come to the car. Drivers will also be able to specify their routes for pick-ups to fit in with their own journeys.
-- Uber is also allowing drivers to pause ride requests and get paid instantly.
-- The "fine" system - which is calculated according to how long the driver has to wait - has already been tested in New York, New Jersey, Phoenix and Dallas.
-- This is separate to a cancellation charge - which ranges from $5 to $10 depending on the city - which would be added to the wait fee if the driver continued waiting a while for a no-show.

Does this work? The father of a former Stanford University athlete convicted on multiple charges of sexual assault has said his son should not have to go to prison for “20 minutes of action”. Time for time? What about other crimes?

Lending Club (LC) seems to be in a death spiral. Soured loans have been a big problem and the company is trying to get their act together - may be a little too late?
- However , debt to income (DTI) criteria (excluding mortgage and the requested program loan amount) is being reduced to 35% (from 40%) across the standard loan program.
- Company says that the changes to lending requirements will not change loss projections for the company
- After the close Keeyfe Bruyette upgraded the company AND Ousted LendingClub Corp CEO and co-founder Renaud Laplanche has been speaking to private equity firms and banks about financing a potential buyout of the online lender, according to people familiar with the matter.

LendingClub Chart

DH Stocks News:

June 1 - the day after you picked it - CombiMatrix (CBMX) announces that it will begin accepting samples for pre-implantation genetic screening by next generation sequencing in mid-June. Stock rallies hard!

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

*** VOTE FOR DHUNPLUGGED for PODCAST AWARDS ***

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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DHUnplugged #315: A Short But Memorable Week

The Fed Chair, Janet Yellen seemed to have given the go-ahead for a rate hike as early as the June meeting. Maybe yes, maybe no. But most probably a trial balloon that will float and then bust by the time the meeting rolls around. dhmemorialday

It is a shortened trading week for U.S. markets are equity markets are closed in observance of Memorial Day. However, that does not mean we will not see the “all important” employment report this Friday – expectations have dropped a bit – what do we think? Listen in as we take a look at what was and what will be for the markets.

 


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Last week was a good week for markets ahead of some key reports and a holiday shortened trading week. DJIA up 2%, NASDAQ up 3.4%! Some better then expected economic reports, a more hawkish Fed. But could it be that the move to postpone any Greek debt write-downs for a few years AND postpone the tax hike in Japan was more beneficial to markets? Or maybe oil hitting $50 for the first time since November 2015.

DJIA up for 4 months in a row - first time since 2014!

Trial balloons by Fed and government - thoughts on that as a method of molding markets.

Crawfish Boil and BBQ last weekend at Andrew's house - Pix:

Crawfish Party 1

Crawfish Party 2

Even with the uneven housing recovery, there has been some slow, but steady improvement and last week we saw some really good reports:

- A 16.6% jump in new home sales in April, putting them at an 8-year peak.
- Housing contract activity surged 5.1% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors, reaching a level unseen since February 2006

GDP - 2nd estimate of the 1st Quarter 2016 activity was revised up (we see this many times that revisions are often to the upside). Still sluggish at 0.80% versus the estimate of 0.50% on an annualized basis.
- Some important takeaways from the GDP Report:
- Net exports continue to slide to the lowest levels in years and years
- Personal consumption is not picking up - which could explain some of the retail sales weakness
- The upward revision had a good bit to do with the change in private inventories

Barron's cover-page this week - contrary-indicator or?

Barron's Cover

Hackers infiltrated Time Inc.’s Myspace social network and published user data on an online forum shortly before Memorial Day weekend, the company said Tuesday. The data stolen includes e-mail addresses, user names and passwords for accounts created prior to June 11, 2013 on the old Myspace platform, according to a statement. The breach doesn’t affect any Time Inc. information or financial data, the New York-based publisher said.
- Why is the "old" platform still active and accessible?
- Why is any MySpace platform still active?  Has anyone seen this lately? What is the purpose --> www.myspace.com

 


dh_CTPANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Intel (INTC)

Currently CTP = Fitbit (FIT)

DH_CTP_INTC

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


 

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
  • Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
  • Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
  • Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
  • Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
  • Kroger (KR) - Food Market
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Let's read through this story slowly:

A former director at Barclays Plc was arrested on Tuesday on U.S. charges that he provided inside information about impending mergers he learned about at the bank to a plumber, who used the tips to make $76,000 illegally. Steven McClatchey, 58, was charged in a criminal complaint filed in Manhattan federal court with conspiracy, wire fraud and securities fraud after the plumber, Gary Pusey, secretly pleaded guilty on Friday and agreed to cooperate with authorities.
In exchange, Pusey paid thousands of dollars in cash to McClatchey, sometimes placing cash in a gym bag that McClatchey brought with him to a marina in Freeport, New York, and provided free bathroom remodeling services, authorities said.

Oil trying again for that $50 mark - keeps hitting and failing. Supplies coming down as production offline..

Some good news on the spending front - April spending on Month-over-Month basis was up 1% - better than estimates. Also, housing prices came in 5.4% higher on Year-over-Year basis. However, May consumer confidence dropped a bit to 92.6 versus estimates of 96. MIXED MESSAGES!

SodaStream (SODA) stock was left for dead as the company's products were not going anywhere. Now the company launched a new home brew beer system  and stock got some legs - ($13.50 - $21 recently)
-- The system will launch in Europe first, and is currently available on Germany's online store and at retailers in Switzerland. Other markets will launch in 2016 and 2017. The Beer Bar will allow users to make home-crafted beer "in seconds" using sparkling water and a beer concentrate. How will that taste? Why not just drink the concentrate? (Cost $5 /3 liters of beer)
-- There are other companies that make the concentrate already (Pat's) and can use carbonated water

SodaStream Beer

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) said Tuesday that it was adding new cold coffee offerings, including Nitrogen-infused coffee in major U.S. cities, as the coffee maker tries to increase its summer-weather drinks and compete with specialty shops. The company’s “Nitro Cold Brew,” which infuses nitrogen into its slow-steeped, cold-brewed coffee, imparts a “smooth and creamy sweetness, “ the company said. Similar offerings, which are typically delivered from a beer-like tap, have been rolled out in recent years at specialty coffee shops like Stumptown Coffee Roasters.

Finally! The Securities and Exchange Commission is taking another step to crack down on corporate use of numbers that the agency fears deceives investors. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance is forming an internal task force to closely review the use of “non-GAAP” numbers and whether companies respond to recently updated guidance on using these metrics. The focus of this new initiative is on companies that use non-GAAP metrics to tell a misleading story, that give too much prominence to non-GAAP numbers, or promote non-GAAP metrics that exclude relevant, recurring costs. [LINK]

HOW? Core Media Group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, saying it has not yet found a way to replace revenue earned from "American Idol."

Jose Cuervo, the world’s biggest tequila producer, is seeking to raise as much as $1 billion in an initial public offering planned for the third quarter of this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Beverage companies have been doing well of late)

Gorilla shot when toddler slips into its zoo compound. How is it possible that there are no better safeguards?

At least 2,234 Indians have contracted the deadly HIV virus while receiving blood transfusions in hospitals in the past 17 months alone. The information was revealed by the country's National Aids Control Organisation (Naco) in response to a petition filed by information activist Chetan Kothari. India has around 2.09 million people living with HIV/Aids.

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

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