DHUnplugged #320: Pokeman GO Markets

Brexit turned out to be nothing. In fact markets making new highs as the promise of stimulus and liquidity quiet market fears.ppokeman

Meanwhile, several U.K. based real estate funds are denying withdrawals as investors are pulling out too much money. Bonds rallying hard along with equities as the flight to safety pushes sovereign debt “more” negative. Crazy times….

What comes next as earnings season begins?


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

A teaser from Elon Musk: Master plan 2 for Tesla - Tweeted... What a master of manipulation!

Stocks up post Brexit. S&P 500 hits ALL TIME HIGH - DJIA right behind.
- Governments panic over Brexit pushed out liquidity and the potential for stimulus and now that there is not much fallout money rushing into stocks
- US 10Y bond sub 1.5%
- Commodities ramp (Gold, Silver, Copper)

Update from Myanmar - incredible trip - posted some pix on Twitter. Very poor country - highlight was cooking class on Inle River.

Interesting culture of food - most meals come with an array of salads (Penny Wort, Asparagus flower, Pickled teea leaves, tomatoes)
- AND the river is like a giant hydroponic garden for most vegetables.

Key Reversal Indicator flashing a warning sign that an imminent move lower is possible (may be shallow but market well overbought)

KRI Indicator

Pokeman GO app is something of a phenomenon. Going to be lots of injuries with this augmented reality app.
-A man has suffered the full pains of Pokemon Go after accidentally becoming the owner of a gym. Boon Sheridan woke up to find that the hugely popular augmented reality game had decided that his house was one of the game’s important gyms. That means that people are rewarded for coming to it in real life – resulting in what he said was dozens of people outside his door.

AND: At least one military base is warning service members against the dangers of wandering into unauthorized areas while chasing Pokemon. "Since Pokemon Go hit last week there have been reports of serious injuries and accidents of people driving or walking while looking at the app and chasing after the virtual Pokemon," says the message posted this morning to the Joint Base Lewis McChord official Facebook page. "Do not chase Pokemon into controlled or restricted areas, office buildings, or homes on base."

** Will the app be another way for advertising as perhaps the places that have the things to find pay to get on the game? (That is genius)

In a recent development, Intel is jotting down the options for Intel Security and it might plan to sell the Antivirus maker software formerly known as McAfee. Six years ago, the same software maker was bought by Intel for $7.7 billion. Even though Intel has declined to offer any clarity on the issue, people who are part of the ongoing discussion have indicated that the Silicon Valley chipmaker might be considering options for selling their cyber security unit to bankers, and if at all the deal is materialized, it’d be one of the largest within the sector.

SBUX - The coffee chain will boost prices on selected coffee beverages at company-operated U.S. stores, effective today. Starbucks said certain sizes of brewed coffee will see increases of 10 cents to 20 cents per cup.

Seagate is cutting 6,500 jobs or about 14 percent of the hard disk drive maker's global workforce. That announcement comes only a few weeks after Seagate announced it would reduce 1,600 jobs. Seagate also boosted its revenue guidance for the quarter that ended July 1, saying demand for its drives was strong.

The bottom line of the state of global finance:

US officials refused to prosecute HSBC for money laundering in 2012 because of concerns within the Department of Justice that it would cause a "global financial disaster", a report says. A US Congressional report revealed UK officials, including Chancellor George Osborne, added to pressure by warning the US it could lead to market turmoil. The report alleges the UK "hampered" the probe and "influenced" the outcome. HSBC was accused of letting drug cartels use US banks to launder funds.
- The bank, which has its headquarters in London, paid a $1.92bn (£1.48bn) settlement but did not face criminal charges. No top officials at HSBC faced any charges.

Can we talk about the rash of violence that is happening all over the world?

Still don't get it - Twitter is set to live-stream some of Bloomberg LP's television programs, the latest in a series of content deals struck by the microblogging service this year. (are they going to be another TV ?)


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of  (none this week)

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Winner announced next week

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Lawyers filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Facebook Inc., alleging it allowed the Palestinian militant Hamas group to use the platform to plot attacks that killed four Americans and wounded one in Israel, the West Bank and Jerusalem. “Facebook has knowingly provided material support and resources to Hamas in the form of Facebook’s online social network platform and communication services,” making it liable for the violence against the five Americans, according to the lawsuit sent to Bloomberg by the office of the Israeli lawyer on the case, Nitsana Darshan-Leitner.

Have you seen this survey? Seems bogus...  GOBankingRates.com survey that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account.

Venezuela:

Citi is planning to shut down the Venezuelan government's foreign currency accounts, according to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Citi has not made any official announcement, but Maduro criticizes the move as a "blockade."

Kimberly-Clark's plant in Venezuela will be taken over and re-activated by the government, according to the country's labor minister. The U.S. consumer products company said Monday it was suspending operations at the plant due to deteriorating economic conditions and a shortage of raw materials.

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto was clear and blunt in his view of Donald Trump's proposed wall on the U.S. and Mexican border: There's no way his country is paying for it.

Elon Musk has no plans to disable Tesla’s Autopilot function in the wake of a fatal crash of a Model S electric car. The auto maker instead plans to redouble efforts to educate customers.

Germany Europe's growing army of robot workers could be classed as "electronic persons" and their owners liable to paying social security for them if the European Union adopts a draft plan to address the realities of a new industrial revolution.

PARTY! TMZ is claiming the former NBA star Lamar Odom had to be taken off a Delta Airlines flight leaving Los Angels on Monday night after getting drunk in the airport lounge and vomiting on the plane.

Jeep will resume production of the classic Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer model after 2019 as the brand's luxury "pinnacle," Jeep boss Mike Manley told industry trade magazine Automotive News.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #319: Brexit Wrecks It

The Brexit vote sent shock wave throughout financial markets. What really happened and what is the outlook for Europe and the rest of the world?brexitonly

Is there a chance for a re-vote and an undo of the referendum? Markets jolted, financial leaders say be calm, but is this a short-term sell off or is something more ominous in store? Markets lost over $2 trillion over the last few days…

We cover the ins and outs of the markets, what could be in store and some ideas on how to profit.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Brexit - Brexit - Brexit
- JCD explanation of what happened.
- Is it true the most Google'd term in UK is "What is the European Union"  ??
- Listen to latest No Agenda show for amazing coverage - Open the Chunnel! [LINK TO MP3] - Can it be reversed? (U.K. politicans say NO!)

Markets plunged around the world - MSCI Global equity index down 5% Friday, another 2% today
- Us markets hit with DJIA down 600, S&P 500 down 4% and small caps down 4.5%
- U.S. equity futures were locked down limit for about 30 minutes after the vote counted.
- S&P cuts UK rating to AA from AAA; Outlook Negative
- Crude oil down 5%, Gold up 5%

Currencies were whipped around - British pound - 7.5%, Yen +3% (clipped 100) , Euro -3% (1.10)

European banks hammered - down 15% - 25%
- DB (-17%), SAN (-19%), RBS (-27%) , LYG (-23%), BCS (-22%) , BBVA (-19%)

US Major banks
- JPM (-7%) , BAC (-7%), MS (-10%), GS (-7%)
- Smaller regions did much better

European Insurers also slammed
- ING (-19%), AV (-21%), ALIZF (-13%)

US Airlines
- DAL (-8%) , AAL (-11%)
- Smaller regions did much better

Over $2 trillion lost over past couple of days in markets - worst day ever loss in $ terms ....

Let's take a look how European markets did on Friday - (ETFs)

Europe ETfs

Time to buy some of these beaten down names????

(Trading in Barclays and RBS shares was suspended on Monday morning following heavy losses on the London Stock Exchange.)

What is the chance that the Brexit will now cause further European Union referendums to exit.

Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovlong. Latervia. Byegium.. until EU reach the state of Germlonely.

You have to love the commentary coming out of the "experts" in high places:

- IMF's Lagarde: "Markets got Brexit vote it wrong, but don't panic"

Where does market go from here? Looking at fundamentals value could be seen at 1,930 - 1950 on S&P 500. Already DJIA is down 900 points since Friday.

**** US 10-year treasury at 1.45%  - LOWEST ON RECORD **** 

This week:

- Tuesday, an E.U. leadership summit begins in Brussels; the Conference Board presents its June consumer confidence index; the April Case-Shiller home price index appears; the BEA issues its final estimate of Q1 GDP; and Nike reports quarterly results.

- Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, and Bank of England governor Mark Carney take part in a panel discussion at an ECB forum in Portugal; Wall Street will also pay attention to May pending home sales, May personal spending figures, and earnings news from General Mills, Monsanto, and Pier 1.

- Thursday, a new initial claims report complements earnings from ConAgra Foods, Constellation Brands, Darden Restaurants, and Paychex.

- Friday, investors consider ISM’s June U.S. manufacturing PMI and China’s latest factory PMI reading.

** During the market swoon on Friday, some interesting things occurred. Once in particular - Betterment (pure roboadvisor) shut down trading until early afternoon.
--- So many emails over past year about companies like Robinhood or Betterment as they are cheap and app based. Anyone learning a lesson on this? Will this show that it pays to pay for some help from a human?

On Twitter - someone asked if anyone has hear from the Queen on Brexit - I think I saw a comment: Brexit: Why Yes! I will have truffled eggs, a buttered muffin with gooseberry jam and tea - two lumps"

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Biogen

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Open for entries

dh_ctp_Biogen

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

**** Getting many requests from listeners that they want to BUY the shirt ******


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Podcast awards update ? NO AGENDA WINS!!!!!!!! (News category)

Hate crimes n the rise post-Brexit vote - what is that all about?

Barron's cover this week - U.S. companies depend on domestic customers, which helps to insulate them from problems abroad. (some truth to that....but not in all cases)

Chinese authorities will require Baidu Inc. and other search engines to report banned content and verify advertisers’ qualifications in its latest attempt at Internet regulation. Under rules to take effect Aug. 1, search engines operating in the country will be prohibited from providing banned information in various formats including links, summaries, cached pages, associative words, related searches and relevant recommendations, the Cyberspace Administration of China said in a statement. They will also be required to report websites and applications that contain prohibited content when spotted, the regulator said.

Sad: New York’s landmark Waldorf Astoria hotel is scheduled to close in spring 2017 so owner Anbang Insurance Group Co. can begin converting most of the more than 1,400 rooms to luxury condominiums, said a person with knowledge of the plans.

Hawaii's governor signed a bill making it the first state to place its residents who own firearms in a federal criminal record database and monitor them for possible wrongdoing anywhere in the country, his office said.

Watch China currency - lowest in years as safe haven trades are preferred.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #318: Two Days and Counting

Countdown to the Brexit vote – two days from now we will know the result. Some are predicting that if the U.K. were to vote to leave that the pound could drop and a global recession would ensue.brexit2

Janet Yellen testifies to Congress over the next two days, shedding light on some of the Fed’s recent decisions. Dovish commentary and a defensive posture should be the overall tone – with nothing new to illuminate us on the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Netflix has a new “icon” and advertisers have a new way twist to an up and coming technology – all this and more on this episode.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

~ Quick note: AH will be traveling the next two weeks ~

Markets in a bit of a tailspin and incredible rally after the latest Brexit poll. SURGING on weekend poll. Each day another poll update is released from various parties. Sunday the "stay" camp saw an uptick - pushing up stocks globally. Today the "leave" camp saw an increase by 2%

Oil back above $50 after a sizable draw-down of inventories reported after the close on Tuesday.

Yellen testimony to Congress today and tomorrow  -
-- Asked about forward Guidance: Yellen said that the Fed is not relying much on forward guidance right now. Says a projections are helpful to the public, but not a commitment on policy. Says paths can change over time as economic outlook is updated.
-- Asked about most recent jobs report: Says that labor market continues to perform well; not overemphasizing one jobs report. Says can watch economic developments since inflation is low.

BREXIT Poll Update

Last week's title to episode was about China not being denied MSCI inclusion - had a picture with that and only one follower mentioned that the picture was had Japanese writing...

BIG NEWS after the close today - Tesla (TSLA) offering to buy SolarCity (SCTY). SCTY up 15% on news to $24.35 (offer may be approx $26-$28) and Tesla SLAMMED down 12%.
- All share deal - no cash but....
- Serious headscratcher - Tesla does not have the money to do the deal as it needs all it has and more to build factories to produce cars.
- What is synergy?
- Hail Mary attempt to prop price of SCTY for Elon Musk?
- Musk majority owner of both companies. Cousin is CEO of SolarCity

TSLA/SCTY After Hours

Noticing that Bloomberg has a fascination with writing about watches. Now Barron's cover is about the best watches of 2016 [LINK] - AND they are expensive! Is this just adverts?

Speaking of covers - New York Daily News covers are even more nuts than ever.... SEE LINK

NY criminalizes bots buying up tickets - Ticketing outlets and credit card companies revealed that bots scoop up the best seats in seconds, which scalpers then resell at prices many times over face value. Scalpers who exploit such software could now face criminal, class A misdemeanor charges. (Hamilton tickets - LOOK at these prices!)

Fresh food - natural food - sham -  The popular U.S. grocery chain Trader Joe's Co agreed to spend $2 million to reduce refrigerator coolant leaks at 453 stores, to settle federal claims it failed to promptly repair leaks that deplete the ozone layer and contribute to global warming. Trader Joe's also agreed to enter a consent decree and pay a $500,000 civil fine to resolve claims it violated the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Department of Justice and Environmental Protection Agency said on Tuesday.

Final rules: New drone rules from the Federal Aviation Administration limit most small commercial drone operations to daylight hours and require operators to get certified every two years.

 


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Biogen next show.

Next CTP - Nike (NKE) - Open for entries on 6/23/16

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

**** Getting many requests from listeners that they want to BUY the shirt ******


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Anything here? Donald Trump and his campaign manager are parting ways, according to a New York Times report confirmed by the Trump campaign.

How does something like this happen? Anton Yelchin, a rising actor best known for playing Chekov in the new "Star Trek" films, was killed by his own car as it rolled down his driveway early Sunday, police and his publicist said. The car pinned Yelchin, 27, against a brick mailbox pillar and a security fence at his home in Los Angeles, Officer Jenny Hosier said. He had gotten out of the vehicle momentarily, but police did not say why he was behind it when it started rolling. (As it turns out - his Jeep SUV was under recall due to problems with gear shift)

Brazil’s federal government must provide financial support to the nearly-bankrupt state of Rio de Janeiro in order to avoid the shame of a disappointing Olympics, according to a top official in the administration of Acting President Michel Temer.

New twist to technology - Virtual reality/augmented reality is now going to be looked at by advertisers as a way to further clutter our lives. makes sense, but what a bummer. [LINK]

A page from SnapChat? Twitter today is taking another step to build up its machine learning muscle, and also potentially to improve how it delivers photos and videos across its apps: the company is acquiring Magic Pony Technology, a company based out of London that has developed techniques of using neural networks (systems that essentially are designed to think like human brains) and machine learning to provide expanded data for images — used, for example, to enhance a picture or video taken on a mobile phone; or to help develop graphics for virtual reality or augmented reality applications.

Follow up - A federal judge said two Starbucks customers may pursue a lawsuit accusing the coffee chain of cheating patrons by underfilling lattes. In a decision on Friday, U.S. District Judge Thelton Henderson in San Francisco said the California plaintiffs may seek damages from Starbucks in their proposed nationwide class action, including for fraud and false advertising.
Starbucks was accused of overcharging customers by systematically serving lattes that are 25 percent too small, based on a recipe it adopted in 2009 to save money on milk.

New speed record - A 10 million core Chinese supercomputer called Sunway TaihuLight now ranks as the world's fastest, nearly tripling the previous supercomputer speed record with a rating of 93 petaflops per second. That's 93 quadrillion floating point operations per second (or 93 million billion).

Venezuela - this is a travesty. Some digging though garbage as there is no food, while others sipping champagne at country club. [LINK]

A thought - Adobe (ADBE) reported earnings after the close and stock was down as it missed some targets/guidance. Historically shown the buyers step in - just sayin'.

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #317: China – DENIED

China markets were once again denied the coveted inclusion by MSCI in a further setback to the markets. deniedchna

Brexit worries are preventing new market highs as trades are unwound ahead of the June 23rd vote and hopes are alive that the Fed will say something, anything that will reignite a flame for bulls to keep buying…

What to make of the VIX? Microsoft’s purchase of LinkedIn and more…

Please check out YestoBitcoins.com


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Sponsor: This episode is sponsored by YestoBitcoins.com


Markets in a bit of a tailspin after the latest Brexit poll. With the Fed meeting this week - is this just a way of pressing on the Fed to not do anything?

Retail sales for May came in slightly better than expected, but still nothing to get too excited about.
- U.S. luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus Group Ltd LLC reported its third straight quarterly drop in sales at established stores and a nearly 81 percent fall in profit amid a slowdown in apparel spending.
- What is going on with higher end retail ???

The VIX - skyrocketing - 50%+ over past few days to a high of over 21 today. Was under 13 last week. The last time  we saw this lvel was back in February as markets were being sold off in a hard correction. Moves like this often signal bottoming potential as many are seeking to buy protection at any price.

Microsoft (MSFT) buying LinkedIn (LNKD) for 50% premium - about $25 billion. Any other targets?
- LinkedIn down 13% YTD even after the $196 price paid...
- Twitter shares surge on the report as hope is alive that they will become a target for acquisition

Brexit - the polls now show a lead to the LEAVE side of things - markets are moving along with every headline. Some listener emails about what will benefit and what will see more problems.

Apple WWDC - anything exciting???? Stock did not price as anything was incrementally beneficial....

MAC

  • Mac OS will feature universal clipboards for copying and pasting across devices.
  • Mac OS will allow desktop saved files available for download from iPhone and iPad.
  • Mac OS will feature Apple Pay for the web.
  • Mac OS will feature SIRI for Mac

TV

  • Apple TV now has 1300 video channels.
  • Will feature ability to watch 4 sports games at one time through Fox Sports Go (FOXA).
  • Apple TV will feature Sling TV with many cable channels.  (DISH, NFLX)
  • Apple TV introduces TV remote applications where you can change channels from iOS device without reaching for Apple TV remote.
  • Apple TV will feature 'Dark Mode'
  • Apple TV OS will available this Fall.

Watch

  • New WatchOS accelerates application launch time.
  • New WatchOS will feature a 'dock' feature for recently used apps on the Watch.
  • Will have feature to reply to messages without tapping reply.
  • New WatchOS will allow users to write on the screen.

After a seemingly interminable wait, the yield on Germany's 10-year sovereign debt has dropped below zero for the first time. The shift into negative territory is part of a continuing trend across global markets that has seen record low yields and surging volatility in developed market sovereign debt.

Investors will be watching China as MSCI Inc. is set to announce early Wednesday local time whether they are going to include mainland shares in their global benchmark indices. NO! Declined for the second time around. MSCI said China had made "significant steps" towards bringing the market "closer to international standards".
- However, the US financial data firm said its "extensive global consultation" showed that Beijing had not addressed all its concerns over barriers to foreign investors.
- MSCI added that it would retain the option to include the A-shares as part of its next market classification review in 2017.

More tech nonsense - Twitter invests $70 million into Soundcloud.


"Use your bitcoins to to get gift-cards for stores in North America, Europe or Asia at YesToBitcoins.com . We have been accepting bitcoins as payment, for gift-cards since 2014.
Go to YestoBitcoins.com

Check out YestoBitcoins.com


dh_CTPAnnouncing the Winner of Fitbit (FIT)

fitbitctp

Currently CTP = Biogen (BIIB)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

Since inception - withing 2 basis points of each other.....

- Neck and neck since inception - Ole Codger's Portfolio slightly ahead....

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Dead or not? The two largest daily fantasy sports companies, FanDuel Inc and DraftKings Inc, are in early-stage talks to merge, people familiar with the matter said on Monday, as the industry faces a crackdown by U.S. states over whether it runs illegal gambling.

OOPS! A Goldman Sachs executive footed the bill for prostitutes and the bank paid for a lavish trip to Dubai for the brother of a decision-maker at Libya's sovereign wealth fund, a lawyer for the fund alleged on Monday, in a case it has brought against Goldman in London's High Court.

In the wake of the Orlando massacre at popular nightclub Pulse, where 49 people were pronounced dead, a local Chick-Fil-A opened up on a Sunday to cook up hundreds of their famous chicken sandwiches and batches of their sweet tea.

Back to nuclear? The Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Watts Bar Unit 2 was connected to the power grid on June 3, becoming the first nuclear power plant to come online since 1996, when Watts Bar Unit 1 started operations. Watts Bar Unit 2 is undergoing final testing, producing electricity at incremental levels of power, as TVA prepares to start commercial operation later this summer. The new reactor is designed to add 1,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity to southeastern Tennessee.

More than 45,000+ people are currently on the wait list to eat a meal, naked,at London's much-anticipated The Bunyadi (aka the "naked restaurant"), which officially opens this month.
- Once diners get inside, remove their clothes and relinquish their smartphones, they will chose between two menus: naked non-vegan and naked vegan. The former features goji berry steak tartare with stinging nettle oil and cured salmon with seaweed salad. The latter features a sweet and salty "forage plate" and an asparagus dish with salted almonds, pickled red onion and melon. Both go for £69, which also gets you a robe and slippers. Wine (which you will probably need a lot of) is extra.

So what do we think of Soros and Ichan now? Are they right to be so pessimistic?

Appears that Russian hackers hacked the DNC site/info bank and stole info on Trump. How will that be used?

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #316: Organized Confusion

The weakest jobs report in years does not dissuade investors from piling into equities. While there is plenty of headwinds for markets, there is seemingly no thought to any downside potential. Oil is helping to keep a floor under pconfusingrices as production has dropped and rumors continue to floated from OPEC.

Fed speakers are talking both sides of the story – ignore weak jobs numbers as the economy is in good shape while rate hikes may not be in the cards due to many concerning factors. Which story to believe? What is for sure is the the Fed wants to create confusion to keep investors guessing over what their next move will be.

Please check out  YestoBitcoins.com


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Sponsor: This episode is sponsored by YestoBitcoins.com


As Gomer Pyle would say: "Surprise, Surprise"
- Jobs report came in very light with on 38k new additions to payroll. However, the Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% (Nov 2007 was last time unemployment rate was this low)      ?? Is this a weak or strong report?
- About 450k dropped out of labor force
- Some weakness due to the Verizon strike (35k)
- Last 2 months data revised down by 50K
- Average adds over 3-months 116k
- Wage growth was up slightly

With the weak jobs report the probability of a Fed rate hike in June dropped from 20% to 4% - through Fed futures outlook.

USD dropped hard on the report and sent gold, silver screaming higher - equity markets were not too thrilled - but recovered - now the S&P 500 is just 1% from all-time high. DJIA hit 18,000 in early trade.
- Are the negative interest rates finally kicking in?

Is the Fed creating "Organized Confusion" purposely? (Fed speakers out with both sides of the story - ignore the jobs report as economy is strong, but rates to remain low)

Oil holding close to the $50 level as almost all of the Nigerian pipelines are offline. Rebel attacks are causing major problems. Corrupt country - could big boys be helping to the rebels?????

Economic news just in:

  1. Among six regions that Moody's assesses, the decline in growth is most pronounced in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Here, Moody's estimates that average median growth will be 2.6% from 2013 to 2016 compared to average growth of 6.5% from 2005 to 2008.
  2. World Bank cuts 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows

Podcast Awards voting is open!


 

OPEC met to attempt to agree on "production caps" and the meeting ended with no agreement - again. But oil was unfazed as reports of a 9% drop in production over the past few months due to U.S. rigs offline. WTI Crude ~ $50.

Last week there was a some news about auto sales that was of interest. Is peak-auto now a thing?

  • Automotive News reports that May 2016 marked the biggest monthly sales drop for the U.S. auto industry in nearly six years.
  • The downturn was driven by a big drop in demand for passenger cars and two fewer selling days this May than the year-ago period.
  • May 2016 was only the industry's eighth monthly sales decline since 2009.
  • Automotive News, citing True Car estimates, indicated average incentives per vehicle increased 7.1% to $3,034 in May versus the same period a year ago.

Snapchat Inc. has 150 million people using the service each day, said people familiar with the matter. That makes the four-year-old messaging app more popular than Twitter Inc. by daily active users.

FitBit - seeing more competition - Now Samsung out with a fitness tracking product for write and... ear? IConX earbuds.

Samsung IConX

In other Fitness tracker news, Wisconsin farmer has developed a fitness tracker chip for cows. Farmer can scan chip with smartphone app to measure all sorts of data on a cow's daily trek - BoviSynch

Valeant Pharma (VRX) - Down 15% today as it finally released its quarterly earnings report and outlook after a significant delay. Outlook was not pretty. Interesting that big value players like Bill Miller was toughting this one recently - he should know that there will not be a bailout for this company. (he was toughing the banks when they swooned back in financial crisis)


"Bitcoins can buy you pretty much anything if you trade them for gift cards.
YesToBitcoins.com sells gift cards from stores in Europe, Asia and North America.
Disclaimer: John C Dvorak doesn't like bitcoins but YesToBitcoins.com likes John C Dvorak"

Check out YestoBitcoins.com


dh_CTP

Currently CTP = Fitbit (FIT)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo

** Need to pick stock for next CTP **


Interesting news from T-Mobile: Company is giving stock shares to customers. In a way to boost sales and reward customers (and to potentially increase stock holders)  Trend?

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

- Neck and neck since inception - Ole Codger's Portfolio slightly ahead....

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare, Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies, Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy, Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


For the Rio Olympics Visa is using the event to introduce a new ring that will let people pay with a wave of their hand: No phone, wallet or even battery needed. Just wave over the scanner to pay. But is this smart? (only limited number going to be available to athletes, but will athletes wear and what if they lose it?) [LINK]

The famed Los Angeles mansion of Hugh Hefner, founder of the Playboy empire, is under contract to be sold to private equity executive Daren Metropoulos, a Playboy Enterprises spokesman said on Monday. The Gothic Tudor-style mansion, which has an area of 20,000 square feet (1,858 square meters), was listed earlier this year for $200 million, Reuters reported in January.

Still going: Pharma industry entrepreneur Martin Shkreli pleaded not guilty Monday to an updated indictment that added a new conspiracy charge to the criminal allegations against him — then jeered at federal prosecutors in a live-streamed exchange.

Getting out of hand: Uber, the ride-hailing firm is extending a system in which drivers charge riders a "wait times" fee if they take more than two minutes to come to the car. Drivers will also be able to specify their routes for pick-ups to fit in with their own journeys.
-- Uber is also allowing drivers to pause ride requests and get paid instantly.
-- The "fine" system - which is calculated according to how long the driver has to wait - has already been tested in New York, New Jersey, Phoenix and Dallas.
-- This is separate to a cancellation charge - which ranges from $5 to $10 depending on the city - which would be added to the wait fee if the driver continued waiting a while for a no-show.

Does this work? The father of a former Stanford University athlete convicted on multiple charges of sexual assault has said his son should not have to go to prison for “20 minutes of action”. Time for time? What about other crimes?

Lending Club (LC) seems to be in a death spiral. Soured loans have been a big problem and the company is trying to get their act together - may be a little too late?
- However , debt to income (DTI) criteria (excluding mortgage and the requested program loan amount) is being reduced to 35% (from 40%) across the standard loan program.
- Company says that the changes to lending requirements will not change loss projections for the company
- After the close Keeyfe Bruyette upgraded the company AND Ousted LendingClub Corp CEO and co-founder Renaud Laplanche has been speaking to private equity firms and banks about financing a potential buyout of the online lender, according to people familiar with the matter.

LendingClub Chart

DH Stocks News:

June 1 - the day after you picked it - CombiMatrix (CBMX) announces that it will begin accepting samples for pre-implantation genetic screening by next generation sequencing in mid-June. Stock rallies hard!

What is JCD writing about this week for PCMAG?

*** VOTE FOR DHUNPLUGGED for PODCAST AWARDS ***

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #315: A Short But Memorable Week

The Fed Chair, Janet Yellen seemed to have given the go-ahead for a rate hike as early as the June meeting. Maybe yes, maybe no. But most probably a trial balloon that will float and then bust by the time the meeting rolls around. dhmemorialday

It is a shortened trading week for U.S. markets are equity markets are closed in observance of Memorial Day. However, that does not mean we will not see the “all important” employment report this Friday – expectations have dropped a bit – what do we think? Listen in as we take a look at what was and what will be for the markets.

 


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Last week was a good week for markets ahead of some key reports and a holiday shortened trading week. DJIA up 2%, NASDAQ up 3.4%! Some better then expected economic reports, a more hawkish Fed. But could it be that the move to postpone any Greek debt write-downs for a few years AND postpone the tax hike in Japan was more beneficial to markets? Or maybe oil hitting $50 for the first time since November 2015.

DJIA up for 4 months in a row - first time since 2014!

Trial balloons by Fed and government - thoughts on that as a method of molding markets.

Crawfish Boil and BBQ last weekend at Andrew's house - Pix:

Crawfish Party 1

Crawfish Party 2

Even with the uneven housing recovery, there has been some slow, but steady improvement and last week we saw some really good reports:

- A 16.6% jump in new home sales in April, putting them at an 8-year peak.
- Housing contract activity surged 5.1% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors, reaching a level unseen since February 2006

GDP - 2nd estimate of the 1st Quarter 2016 activity was revised up (we see this many times that revisions are often to the upside). Still sluggish at 0.80% versus the estimate of 0.50% on an annualized basis.
- Some important takeaways from the GDP Report:
- Net exports continue to slide to the lowest levels in years and years
- Personal consumption is not picking up - which could explain some of the retail sales weakness
- The upward revision had a good bit to do with the change in private inventories

Barron's cover-page this week - contrary-indicator or?

Barron's Cover

Hackers infiltrated Time Inc.’s Myspace social network and published user data on an online forum shortly before Memorial Day weekend, the company said Tuesday. The data stolen includes e-mail addresses, user names and passwords for accounts created prior to June 11, 2013 on the old Myspace platform, according to a statement. The breach doesn’t affect any Time Inc. information or financial data, the New York-based publisher said.
- Why is the "old" platform still active and accessible?
- Why is any MySpace platform still active?  Has anyone seen this lately? What is the purpose --> www.myspace.com

 


dh_CTPANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Intel (INTC)

Currently CTP = Fitbit (FIT)

DH_CTP_INTC

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


 

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
  • Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
  • Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
  • Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
  • Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
  • Kroger (KR) - Food Market
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Let's read through this story slowly:

A former director at Barclays Plc was arrested on Tuesday on U.S. charges that he provided inside information about impending mergers he learned about at the bank to a plumber, who used the tips to make $76,000 illegally. Steven McClatchey, 58, was charged in a criminal complaint filed in Manhattan federal court with conspiracy, wire fraud and securities fraud after the plumber, Gary Pusey, secretly pleaded guilty on Friday and agreed to cooperate with authorities.
In exchange, Pusey paid thousands of dollars in cash to McClatchey, sometimes placing cash in a gym bag that McClatchey brought with him to a marina in Freeport, New York, and provided free bathroom remodeling services, authorities said.

Oil trying again for that $50 mark - keeps hitting and failing. Supplies coming down as production offline..

Some good news on the spending front - April spending on Month-over-Month basis was up 1% - better than estimates. Also, housing prices came in 5.4% higher on Year-over-Year basis. However, May consumer confidence dropped a bit to 92.6 versus estimates of 96. MIXED MESSAGES!

SodaStream (SODA) stock was left for dead as the company's products were not going anywhere. Now the company launched a new home brew beer system  and stock got some legs - ($13.50 - $21 recently)
-- The system will launch in Europe first, and is currently available on Germany's online store and at retailers in Switzerland. Other markets will launch in 2016 and 2017. The Beer Bar will allow users to make home-crafted beer "in seconds" using sparkling water and a beer concentrate. How will that taste? Why not just drink the concentrate? (Cost $5 /3 liters of beer)
-- There are other companies that make the concentrate already (Pat's) and can use carbonated water

SodaStream Beer

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) said Tuesday that it was adding new cold coffee offerings, including Nitrogen-infused coffee in major U.S. cities, as the coffee maker tries to increase its summer-weather drinks and compete with specialty shops. The company’s “Nitro Cold Brew,” which infuses nitrogen into its slow-steeped, cold-brewed coffee, imparts a “smooth and creamy sweetness, “ the company said. Similar offerings, which are typically delivered from a beer-like tap, have been rolled out in recent years at specialty coffee shops like Stumptown Coffee Roasters.

Finally! The Securities and Exchange Commission is taking another step to crack down on corporate use of numbers that the agency fears deceives investors. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance is forming an internal task force to closely review the use of “non-GAAP” numbers and whether companies respond to recently updated guidance on using these metrics. The focus of this new initiative is on companies that use non-GAAP metrics to tell a misleading story, that give too much prominence to non-GAAP numbers, or promote non-GAAP metrics that exclude relevant, recurring costs. [LINK]

HOW? Core Media Group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, saying it has not yet found a way to replace revenue earned from "American Idol."

Jose Cuervo, the world’s biggest tequila producer, is seeking to raise as much as $1 billion in an initial public offering planned for the third quarter of this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Beverage companies have been doing well of late)

Gorilla shot when toddler slips into its zoo compound. How is it possible that there are no better safeguards?

At least 2,234 Indians have contracted the deadly HIV virus while receiving blood transfusions in hospitals in the past 17 months alone. The information was revealed by the country's National Aids Control Organisation (Naco) in response to a petition filed by information activist Chetan Kothari. India has around 2.09 million people living with HIV/Aids.

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #314: FedWinds In Time for Summer

Greek debt write-downs will wait until at least 2018 says Germany. Retail sales in the U.S. are still feeling the pain as the latest report from Best Buy (BBY) shows a rather miserable outlook ahead.summermarkets

Volumes are slowing into the summer and M&A rumors as well as upgrades by Sell-side should be in full swing. Markets choppy, one day up and one day down. The cycle could play out for the foreseeable future.

A smattering of interesting news that may move markets and a few stock picks in this episode.

 


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Big day on Wall Street - DJIA up 200 points+, S&P and NASDAQ moving higher - no news to explain. Big day Tuesday! Oil gains in after hours as inventory released - now at $49 again.

Interesting - over the past 10 trading days - every other day is up or down. Seems that there is no direction... Volumes starting to dry up into summer so.... There will be more rumors about M&A and upgrades by sell-side analysts to keep things on a happy note for markets.

Uber announces a leasing program available for "$250" for a car. Different cars, but when you look into it, $116- $150 per week for 150+ weeks. Cost is deducted from your Uber earnings. How is this going to play?

Follow up on Kombucha - have you seen how this stuff is made? Watched a video as my son said we should make as he heard it was good for you... Nasty process!   (Rethinking investment in REED)
- Kombucha starts out as a sugary tea, which is then fermented with the help of a scoby. "SCOBY" is actually an acronym for "symbiotic culture of bacteria and yeast."

SCOBY Pic

 

Fedex - when was that last time you shipped anything ? Have you noticed the prices? 2 day from Florida to New York - price?

Very interesting story about pharma and charities. Charities set up to pay for prescriptions for people that do not have the means to pay the high prices - seeded by pharma companies and other donors. What a scam! [LINK]

Takata recalls still coming in - upwards of 125 million airbags now recalled. Currently about 1.25 billion cars now in world. So, only 10% but is that low and how is the company staying in business? (Answer: Japan govy will protect)

French police and prosecutors swooped on Google’s Paris offices, intensifying a tax-fraud probe amid accusations the Internet giant fails to pay its fair share across the European Union.

What is our take on markets? Topping pattern or just consolidation? (See chart below)

S&P 500 Chart


dh_CTPANNOUNCING THE Progress of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Intel (INTC)

Currently CTP = Intel (INTC)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


 

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
  • Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
  • Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
  • Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
  • Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
  • Kroger (KR) - Food Market
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle


Housing market is on fire. Is it because of the Fed-Winds that is threatening to raise rates - therefore pushing people to buy now?

Housing Trends Chart

Egypt air - What is the story? Bomb, fire, ?????

Twitter updating the 140 characters again - now @name will no longer count toward limit and they are adding additional features like retweet yourself
- " .@ " no longer going to be used when you start a tweet - "New Tweets that begin with a username will reach all your followers. (That means you’ll no longer have to use the ”.@” convention, which people currently use to broadcast Tweets broadly.) If you want a reply to be seen by all your followers, you will be able to Retweet it to signal that you intend for it to be viewed more broadly."

Study now shows that FitBit trackers may not be calculating heart rate correctly. Seems that could be 14 bpm off when exercising at high levels. (low)

Saudi press: U.S. blew up World Trade center to create War on Terror. Is this just a response to the release of part of the 9/11 papers?

New social experiment contemplated. Swiss may pay people $2,500 per month for doing nothing. (Doesn't the U.S. already have something like that?)

The head of security for the U.S. Transportation Security Administration has been removed from his position, according to an internal TSA memo on Monday seen by Reuters, after the agency was criticized for long lines at airport security checkpoints.

GoPro - CEO on TV today discussing channel inventory reduction plan - stock up 6% (although it was running up prior to the TV appearance). Also, Red Bull and GoPro enter into a strategic alliance - not exactly sure what it is but Red Bull poured in some money and got stock in the deal.

Follow up - Volkswagen... Lawyers are also expected to tell U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer that a settlement over the excess diesel emissions scandal will include "substantial compensation" for owners of 482,000 polluting vehicles, the sources said. An agreement in principle for buybacks and potential fixes was announced in April.

U.S. Dollar hits 7-week high after new home sales. Good for some stocks, bad for others.

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #313: Mr. Inflation is Showing Signs of Life

OIL on the move, inflation ticking up and GDP is flat. Stocks are still range-bound with erratic day-to-day moves. There is some talk that inflationDHJapan’s Abe is going to move back the sales tax increase and plenty of central bank gibberish about rate hikes and live meetings.

Coming up this week we are looking forward to plenty of earnings news from some of the key discount retailers as well as minutes from the latest Fed meeting. Watching for further signs that more stimulus is on the way!

 


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

News flow is a bit on the light side. Not much ultra exciting to be honest....Earnings season winding down, summer is just ahead...

Solid start to the week - with oil moving higher, equities rallied Monday was a good day overall as it started with some opening bullishness from Warren Buffett - $1 billion new position in Apple (AAPL) for Berkshire Hathaway. But then Tuesday came and washed all that away.

Tuesday - CPI update. Inflation is on the rise - latest report shows that a month-over-month gain of 0.4% (annualized at 4.8%). Year-over-year 2.1%, still above the 2% Fed target.

Inflation Chart

Some mail in - comments that we are being too negative lately. The question was if it is because there is nothing good to talk about or we are just picking on the "bad" news. Also wondering if we can try to be more balanced....

Some good news: Inflation is picking up... Commodities continue to get bid, Transports are holding...

More good news? Goldman now believes that the supply-demand has switched and we will be seeing draw-downs on crude inventories due to lower production and interruptions of flow from Canada and other areas. This is a major change as they have been very bearish of pricing for some time. (Crude @ $48.50)

Even better news: The U.S. released the treasury holdings for Saudi Arabia for the first time.. $116 billion. (The concern was that they may have had at least $750 billion and if the 9/11 papers were released they would sell all... Since 1970 this information has been secret and all of a sudden it is released? (Follow up - Senate passes bill allowing for 9/11 lawsuits against Saudi Arabia)

S&P 500 Earnings estimates trend:

S&P 500 Estimate Trend

Oh my - the big-box retailers not doing so well. Macy's (M) down 23% this month, Dillard (DDS) down 18%, Kohls (KSS) down 20%, Sears (SHLD) down 31%, JC Penny (JCP) down 21%, Nordstrom (JWN) down 26%.

Discount retail doing much better so far this month. Dollar General (DG) down 1%, WalMart (WMT) down 2.6%, TJX Companies (TJX) down 0.3%, Target (TGT) down 7%...

AND - Amazon (AMZN) up 5.5% this month.

Central banker talk - just today:

  • Fed's Williams and Lockhart both say that two to three rate hikes this year is possible
  • Fed's Williams says wages are picking up more than suggested by the averages
  • Fed's Lockhart says Fed wage tracker in on the rise
  • Fed's Williams comments out here... pressing the hawkish view again, "June is a Live Meeting" etc
  • Fed's Kaplan says a rate hike may be warranted soon
  • Williams is noting that the Brexit vote could have an impact on the dollar
  • Williams is noting that the Brexit vote could have an impact on the dollar

dh_CTPANNOUNCING THE Progress of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Intel (INTC)

Currently CTP = Intel (INTC)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


This is a good idea! Twitter eliminated pix links and URL links from the 140 character count.

UPDATE - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
  • Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
  • Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
  • Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
  • Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
  • Kroger (KR) - Food Market
  • More......

We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5/6/16) - DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle

Interesting twist in the Valeant Pharma (VRX) story. Andrew Leff, the gent who started the landslide through his work at Citron Research now is out with a new call on the stock and he is LONG (with some out of the money puts are protection)

Psilocybin, the psychedelic compound in magic mushrooms, may one day be an effective treatment for patients with severe depression who fail to recover using other therapies, scientists said on Tuesday. A small-scale pilot study of psilocybin's use in cases of treatment-resistant depression showed it was safe and effective, the British researchers said. Of 12 patients given the drug, all showed some decrease in symptoms of depression for at least three weeks. Seven continued to show a positive response at three months. Five remained in remission beyond the three months. **** HOW DO WE GET IN ON THESE THESE STUDIES???


DHUnplugged Public Service Announcements:  THINGS NEVER TO DO

1) Some important information for all of us - if visiting zoo or National Park - The National Park Service released a statement Monday after a pair of tourists put a bison calf in an SUV over concerns the animal was too cold - after, the baby bison had to be euthanized.

2) A congressional candidate running for a seat in Virginia appears to have shared a little too much about his browsing habits by posting an embarrassing screenshot to his official Facebook page. Mike Webb, who is running as an independent after losing the Republican primary, posted several screenshots Monday morning and appears to have included several Yahoo tabs from X-rated sites. Pages with the titles “Ivone Sexy Amateur” and “Layla Rivera Tight” were both open, along with an AT&T bill pay page.

Webb's Screenshot

3) Don't try to drive a 2016/2017 Subaru Legacy or Outback - seems that turning the steering wheel many have no effect on the direction of the wheels. Subaru has issued a recall of roughly 48,500 of the sedans and crossovers due to a dangerous steering-system defect.


Browser Wars - Firefox takes 2nd place ahead of IE with 15.6% share vs 15.5% share - first time ever... (Google Chrome still big leader)

Browser Share Chart

Looking for a job? Google is hiring folks in Chandler Arizona area to be test drivers for their self-driving cars. Pays $20/hour to monitor progress...

Amazon is expanding the food delivery service it is offering - goodbye GrubHub (GRUB)?

Apple (AAPL) investing $1 billion in Chinese Uber (DIDI) - what does that mean?

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Play

DHUnplugged #312: Battle of The Old Codger Vs. The Millennial

Wildfires in Canada disrupting oil production is helping to move oil prices – is this finally the bottom for crude or just a false move that will resolve lower?dh_oldvsyoung

China has mixed economic data, but markets like that inflation saw stabilization.

A slew of earnings from the big-box retailers are on the way… What will that tell us about the state of the U.S. consumer?

Plenty of fun facts and inside the news discussions in this episode along with some insight on the egregious pay for some hedge fund managers.


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

Ft. Lauderdale Air show this weekend was awesome!

Employment numbers disappoint. 160k new hires falls short of the 205k expected. Unemployment rate at 5%. Markets were stunned (at first) then managed to move higher by the end of the day on Friday as some Fed speakers came out more dovish (after some very hawkish comments earlier in the week by others) - markets did not like at first, but quickly turned around... Today DJIA up 222 points on no apparent news that should have moved markets...

Carl Icahn is far more bearish than he was in January as a fund he runs recently had a net short position of 149%.

Wildfires in Canada are unbelievable - threatening oil sands production.

Krispy Kreme (KKD) - bought and going private by same company that took Kuerig Green Mountain private for 25% premium. (Both of these companies were having severe problems and must have seemed to JAB Beecha major turnaround potential.)

Twitter followers - Last week Andrew was whining that he did not have as many followers as John (by a longshot) - John chuckled.. An update...

Brazil’s interim lower house chief Waldir Maranhao called for a new vote on the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, in a surprise move that prompted a selloff across local markets.

Brazil ETF Reaction

Microsoft: The tech giant said its MSN website in China -- which provides news and lifestyle content as well as a search function -- will be shut down on June 7. Microsoft remains "deeply committed to China," the company said in a statement, noting that the country hosts its biggest R&D facility outside the U.S. and is a market for products like Windows 10 and cloud computing services.

Facebook workers routinely suppressed news stories of interest to conservative readers from the social network’s influential “trending” news section, according to a former journalist who worked on the project. This individual says that workers prevented stories about the right-wing CPAC gathering, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, and other conservative topics from appearing in the highly-influential section, even though they were organically trending among the site’s users. (Facebook of course denies this)


dh_CTPANNOUNCING THE WINNERS of the
DHUnplugged Closest to the Pin Contest for Domino's Pizza

Currently CTP = Intel (INTC)

CTP_Dominos

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo)dh_CTP2DHU's Official Model - Vivi Jugo


Fossil earnings out and they are awful - stock down 25%
- Fossil sees Q2 $0.00-0.15 vs $0.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs decreasing 5.0-1.5% y/y

Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS) merger has been voted against by FTC - shares plunge.

Disney (DIS) first earnings miss in 5 years - stock down 5% after hours.

Amazon.com Inc. will let people post videos to its website and earn money from advertising, royalties and other sources, putting the company in more-direct competition with Google’s YouTube.

The Panama Papers database is now live - [LINK] -- How is it again that NO U.S. names appear?

Big Announcement - NEW ETF - Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!

The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential, and Home Depot, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.

We are creating the DH Old Codger Index Portfolio to compete against this new ETF to see how "old school" stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:

  • Devita (DVA) - Dialysis/HealthCare
  • Tootsie Roll (TR) - Candies
  • Exxon Mobile (XOM) - Oil/Energy
  • Sears (SHLD) - Misc. Retail
  • McDonald's (MCD) - Fast Food
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financial
  • Altria (MO) - Cigarettes
  • Kroger (KR) - Food Market
  • More......

We will have the performance summary running shortly (daily and since inception of 5/9/16) - check back on DHUnplugged.com

Hedge funds lost money for their investors last year but the industry's top-paid managers had a banner year, with five men earning more than $1 billion each in 2015, an industry survey showed. Together, the 25 best-paid hedge fund managers took home $13 billion, 10 percent more than the previous year.

Hedge Fund Manager Pay

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

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DHUnplugged #311: The Failure of Kitchen Sink Economics

Key economic leaders in Europe downgraded future growth expectations and lowered their outlook for inflation. This is in the as they have provided record stimulus and gone so far as applying negative rates.kitchensink

China is still slowing and earnings have been so-so at best. Where do we go from here?

In this episode we take a look at some  of the top business news as well as the DHUnplugged take on the media spin. What you should be looking for to make those all important investment decisions and what not to do – plus a few ideas from us to you…


Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

It was a tough ending for the week as some of the big, well known names dissapointed investors with weak earnings and guidance - with the exception of Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN)...

Breaking news - Cruz suspends Presidential campaign

BOJ's Kuroda decides to do nothing in the most recent rate meeting and the Yen goes haywire! Yen moves UP by 4% and Nikkei moves down by ~ 8% in 2 sessions as investors were all set for another round of massive stimulus from the BOJ. So why isn't the Kitchen Sink approach to economics failing?

Yen Chart

If anyone thought that the global stimulus program may be over - look no futher that the surprise move by Australia last night - cut rates again - by 0.25%.

The default rate on energy H/Y bonds now at 13% - surpassing the previous record of 9.7% set in 1999. (Ultra Petroleum and Midstates petroleum are latest victims of low oil prices)

And... U.S. Steel: Moody's downgrades U.S. Steel's CFR to B3; assigns B1 rating to senior secured note offering; outlook negative.

In a "bold" move - Chipotle (CMG) is thinking about a breakfast burrito - Now where did they get that idea from?

Serepta Therapeutics - WOW - Upgraded as there is still hope - stock up 120% since 50% sell off..

Puerto Rico missed debt payment and likely default - will they be bailed out of this?

Now this is too much in every way: On Friday, Yahoo!  disclosed the packages that will be available to key executives if they are ousted in the event of a sale. Mayer will be paid $54.8 million in cash and stock if she's removed from her job within a year of a sale. [LINK]


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Announcing new longer CTP ... Intel (INTC) - 5/27/16

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Starbucks iced coffee contains too much ice, not enough coffee, lawsuit claims - “Starbucks is misleading customers who expect to receive the advertised amount of fluid ounces,” states the class-action lawsuit, which was filed last week in federal court. “For example, if a gallon of gas is advertised as costing three dollars, and a customer pays three dollars and pumps gas, that customer is expecting to receive a gallon of gas — not approximately half a gallon.”  [LINK]

What is Dvorak writing about for PC Magazine?

I like this idea: A new crop of startups are trying to make gas stations obsolete. Tap an app, and they'll bring the gas to you, filling up your car while you're at work, eating breakfast, or watching Netflix. Filld, WeFuel, Yoshi, Purple and Booster Fuels have started operating in a few cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles, Palo Alto, Nashville, Tennessee, and Atlanta, Georgia. But officials in some of those cities say that driving around in a pickup truck with hundreds of gallons of gasoline might not be safe.

Interesting discussion about the real estate markets in areas heavy with tech and startups. Last week's TDI Podcast explored some of the recent trends and an alert to what properties to sell and where to redeploy the money [LINK]

Interesting headline on earnings tonight - Zillow (Z) reaffirms adjusted EBITA guidance for FY16 - Adjusted EBITA?

The island was unable to make a $422 million debt payment due Monday. It's another alarm bell of how bad the situation is getting on the island. Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla calls it a "humanitarian crisis," which a step above an economic emergency. He claims he is prioritizing paying Puerto Rico's police and teachers over Wall Street. (Will there be another bailout coming?)

Stealing small amounts of food to stave off hunger is not a crime, Italy's highest court of appeal has ruled. Judges overturned a theft conviction against Roman Ostriakov after he stole cheese and sausages worth €4.07 (£3; $4.50) from a supermarket. Mr Ostriakov, a homeless man of Ukrainian background, had taken the food "in the face of the immediate and essential need for nourishment", the court of cassation decided. Therefore it was not a crime, it said.

Have not seen this in a while: Police said Tuesday that a body found in a plastic bag along the Brooklyn shoreline this week was "obviously" the victim of a homicide -- and that the man's feet were coated in cement.

Uber planning on eliminating surge pricing. That is the story early in the day - but Uber out with comments that is not happening. What to believe?

Here you go: According to the Dubai-based publication Arabian Business, the UAE is in the early stages of evaluating how a man-made mountain could help maximize rainfall in the country, consulting with experts from the U.S.-based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to study the idea.

Venmo, which is owned by PayPal (PYPL) , said in a SEC filing posted Thursday that the Federal Trade Commission is investigating the service over possible deceptive or unfair practices. ( Venmo, the company's social payments platform, processed $3.2 billion of TPV, up 154% year-over-year.)

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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